ProbSevere Time Series

I found the ProbSevere time series helpful today as we “triaged” storms and tried to identify storms that may become severe. While the capping inversion stayed strong and therefore prevented storms from becoming severe, it was great to see storms follow a similar intensification process identified by the Prob time series time graph. Most storms intensified in a similar fashion but capped out when ProbSevere reached ~40%. After 40% storms would remained steady state and then gradually weaken. Noticing these trends and seeing them plotted visually helped us pick up on the trends. Any storm that deviated from this and grew upscale faster would be easy to identify on the ProbSevere time series graphs. We knew what the “norm” was for storms in this capped environment because of the time series graphs. We surmised that once the cap broke (which would be after the experiment ended), we could quickly ascertain when storm would finally be able to grow upscale by looking at their respective time series.

– Fear the Shear

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