We noticed a relatively high ProbSeverev3 (53%) on a rather innocuous looking storm (MESH around 0.5”) around 2030z. This was higher than the v2 value of 36%. The individual probs were relatively evenly weighted at lower values near 30%.
GLM FED was unimpressive, though it’s unclear how much of this is related to lower detection efficiencies in this area. ENI total lightning was halfway decent. High DCAPE values and other environmental parameters may have been sending the ProbSevere v3 higher.
Another storm further to the west over SE MN had slightly lower MESH (.39”) but in this case PSv2 was higher at 48% vs Psv3 at 23%.
– Barry Allen