Have never re-issued a warning for the exact same area before. Western cells were not moving and still very tall, so re-issued. MESH still showing potential for quarters or a little more there.
Charley
Month: June 2019
EAX Mesoscale Type Discussion (Mountain Bone)
Continuing to see clearing behind the decaying MCS as of 21z. This has allowed ML Cape values to jump above the 2000 – 3000 J/KG range along and northwest of I-35 per the All-Sky Layer Convective Available Potential Energy product. This is in general agreement with 18z NUCAPs soundings with further downstream propagation of best CAPE region likely over the next few hours per the NUCAPs forecast products. With that being said, not sold on the availability of an efficient enough lifting mechanism across this region over the next few hours to get widespread initiation underway. Best chance of seeing that will be further east of I-35 where a pretty pronounced differential heating boundary exists per in-situ observations.
Convection development and location is too uncertain to entertain a watch issuance this far north as of 21z Tuesday.
————————————————————————————————–Mountain Bone
FED, ENTLN comparison
Noticed the FED was matching up well with ENTLN data in our eastern cells, but then the cells to the west should have been electrically active as well. ENTLN data shows several flashes, but FED from GLM is minimal.
Charley
McLeod Co., MN Hail
The public reported golf ball size hail 1 SW of Silver Lake in McLeod Co. at 348 pm CDT. At this time, ProbSevere depicted 99% for severe hail, and there was a ZDR minimum within the core of the storm, and the hydro class showed giant hail as the precip type (
not shown).
Forecast NUCAPS Info
NUCAPS data indicates well the area that has received rain, and the airmass the current cluster will be going into (the colors just outside of the blacked-out area.
As we were thinking of some tornadogenesis earlier, seeing the relatively high LCLs from this product may deter us from issuing a later TOR warning.
Charley
ProbSevere Sample Text in 4-Panel Display
In the 4-panel display, the text of the ProbSevere info doesn’t all show up (upper-left panel). It’d be useful for the text to fit within the window whether the cursor is in the top/middle/bottom of the window.
EAX Near-Term AFD (Mountain Bone)
A decaying MCS continues to progress northeast across the central portions of northernmost Missouri, allowing for destabilization to begin in its wake. This is especially true along and west of Interstate 35 in NW Missouri/eastern-most KS where clouds have cleared for several hours according to GOES_East Channel 2 imagery. With in-situ observations showcasing upper-60s to low 70s dewpoints at the surface across the central and eastern portions of the state, it likely won’t take much in the way of surface heating to allow for convective initiation this afternoon and evening. Based on downstream NUCAPs soundings, rather robust SFC CAPE values in the 3000 – 4000 J/KG range will likely spread northwestward with time, which should be ample to support some convection this afternoon and evening. Best (early) thoughts on initiation location this afternoon will be across the easternmost portions of the CWA along a line from Boonville to Centerville along the eastern most periphery of the nearly stalled MCS, which could provide for enough lift to get things firing by late afternoon and evening. Also keeping an eye on a downstream shortwave clearly evident in GOES_East water vapor imagery which could push an additional round of multicellular convection through late this afternoon and evening. Most likely to brush the southern and eastern portions of the CWA, which currently finds itself adjacent to a severe thunderstorm watch extending to its south and eastward. .
Any storms that do form or push into the area should have plenty of moisture and instability to sustain themselves. All_Sky TPW and NUCAP soundings show a plume of 1.3 to 1.5 inch PWATT values extending north throughout the entire CWA, which also brings the concern for some additional flooding, especially across the southeastern portions of the CWA which will likely see more numerous coverage of storms. Low 0-1km and 0-6km effective shear values should limit the presence of sustained supercells, however, a strong to severe thunderstorm or two will remain possible this afternoon and evening.
————————————————————————————————-Mountain Bone
Error message I get at my WFO on ProbSevere
Pops up as a red banner and ProbSevere disabled.
Paint error: null:: The resource [NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model (%)] has been disabled.com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.exception.VizException: Paint error: null:: The resource [NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model (%)] has been disabled.
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.drawables.AbstractRenderableDisplay.paintResource(AbstractRenderableDisplay.java:531)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.maps.display.MapRenderableDisplay.paint(MapRenderableDisplay.java:188)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.d2d.core.map.D2DMapRenderableDisplay.paint(D2DMapRenderableDisplay.java:172)
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.VizDisplayPane.glDrawInternal(VizDisplayPane.java:523)
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.VizDisplayPane.draw(VizDisplayPane.java:477)
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.DrawCoordinatedPane.draw(DrawCoordinatedPane.java:172)
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.DrawCoordinatorJob$1.run(DrawCoordinatorJob.java:196)
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.UILockListener.doPendingWork(UILockListener.java:162)
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.UISynchronizer$3.run(UISynchronizer.java:154)
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.RunnableLock.run(RunnableLock.java:35)
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Synchronizer.runAsyncMessages(Synchronizer.java:182)
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Display.runAsyncMessages(Display.java:4528)
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Display.readAndDispatch(Display.java:4146)
at org.eclipse.e4.ui.internal.workbench.swt.PartRenderingEngine$4.run(PartRenderingEngine.java:1121)
at org.eclipse.core.databinding.observable.Realm.runWithDefault(Realm.java:336)
at org.eclipse.e4.ui.internal.workbench.swt.PartRenderingEngine.run(PartRenderingEngine.java:1022)
at org.eclipse.e4.ui.internal.workbench.E4Workbench.createAndRunUI(E4Workbench.java:150)
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench$5.run(Workbench.java:687)
at org.eclipse.core.databinding.observable.Realm.runWithDefault(Realm.java:336)
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench.createAndRunWorkbench(Workbench.java:604)
at org.eclipse.ui.PlatformUI.createAndRunWorkbench(PlatformUI.java:148)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.personalities.cave.component.CAVEApplication.startComponent(CAVEApplication.java:173)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.application.VizApplication.start(VizApplication.java:102)
at org.eclipse.equinox.internal.app.EclipseAppHandle.run(EclipseAppHandle.java:196)
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.internal.adaptor.EclipseAppLauncher.runApplication(EclipseAppLauncher.java:134)
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.internal.adaptor.EclipseAppLauncher.start(EclipseAppLauncher.java:104)
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.adaptor.EclipseStarter.run(EclipseStarter.java:388)
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.adaptor.EclipseStarter.run(EclipseStarter.java:243)
at sun.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke0(Native Method)
at sun.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(NativeMethodAccessorImpl.java:62)
at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43)
at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498)
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.invokeFramework(Main.java:673)
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.basicRun(Main.java:610)
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.run(Main.java:1519)
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.main(Main.java:1492)
Caused by: java.lang.NullPointerException
at edu.wisc.ssec.cimss.common.dataplugin.probsevere.ProbSevereRecord.getPolyGeoms(ProbSevereRecord.java:284)
at edu.wisc.ssec.cimss.viz.probsevere.rsc.ProbSevereResource.paintInternal(ProbSevereResource.java:302)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.rsc.AbstractVizResource.paint(AbstractVizResource.java:542)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.drawables.AbstractRenderableDisplay.paintResource(AbstractRenderableDisplay.java:528)
… 35 more
Watching to the west again
Where AllSky says LI is -8, new development on IR.
NUCAPS All Sky LAPS contrast
A modified NUCAPS sounding depicted a LI of -3 in the wake of the convection in the NW corner of the MPX CWA. This is within an area of more cloudiness and the All Sky LAP derived product is using GFS in this area, and shows a more unstable environment with a LI of -7.
