Continuing to see clearing behind the decaying MCS as of 21z. This has allowed ML Cape values to jump above the 2000 – 3000 J/KG range along and northwest of I-35 per the All-Sky Layer Convective Available Potential Energy product. This is in general agreement with 18z NUCAPs soundings with further downstream propagation of best CAPE region likely over the next few hours per the NUCAPs forecast products. With that being said, not sold on the availability of an efficient enough lifting mechanism across this region over the next few hours to get widespread initiation underway. Best chance of seeing that will be further east of I-35 where a pretty pronounced differential heating boundary exists per in-situ observations.

Convection development and location is too uncertain to entertain a watch issuance this far north as of 21z Tuesday.

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