ProbTor reliable? Lightning says no, MRMS says maybe.

There is difficulty with having confidence of the ProbTor portion of the ProbSevere product due to an instance where it is estimating higher tor rates (8%) when a storm has no identified lightning (GLM, NLDN, and ENTI) along the coast of Florida. To be fair, the storm previously did indicate some lightning with it. I investigated the TOE, FED, and Min Flash Area in the vicinity of this storm, as well as usual point lightning data in 5 and 1 min updating intervals, and it has me confused as to what the ProbSevere is “seeing” for its lightning data (it is indicating ENTI lightning within its circle). Below is the image example of ProbSevere loaded alongside lightning data including GLM’s Min Flash Area:


I also pulled up the lowest level rotation tracks from MRMS data, and it did indicate a slightly higher maximum within the ProbTor circle, so I believe the ProbTor is locking on to that feature.   – shearluck