At 2353 UTC, a developing thunderstorm was seen on radar southeast of Lubbock.  At 0007 UTC, lightning jump data increased to 4 sigma.  At this same time, flash density increased to 70-80 flashes.  A warning was issued at 0011 UTC, based off the lightning data and radar data (50 dBz core at 33000 ft per MAF and low Zdr values per LUB).  ProbSevere increased to 87% at 0007 UTC also, and remained above 84%.  The storm took on a classic supercell structure and later produced a tornado.