The Experimental Warning Program provides an invaluable opportunity to test the utility of new products and methods in an environment that mimics standard severe weather operations. In no other way can newly developed products be assessed properly to identify strengths and weaknesses in such a fast paced and high stress environment. From my experience and hearing from other forecasters and researchers involved in the EWP, it was a truly invaluable experience not only to help research meteorologists transition their products to warning operations, but for forecasters to see the future of warning operations.
The products we tested include high resolution mesoscale and storm scale models to analyze the near storm environment, and new storm interrogation products to diagnose storm severity. Many of the products proved extremely useful to understand and forecast storm behavior from the ambient conditions. In particular, utilizing OUN WRF and LAPS high resolution fields of instability gave good indications of why some storms intensified, while others weakened or remained unchanged. Also, these products helped the forecaster to quickly adjust their mindset from thinking it would be a fairly marginal severe weather day, to being on high alert for potential dangerous storms. In regards to certain storm interrogation products, MRMS rotation tracks were very useful in making warning decisions during the supercell cycling process and when analyzing cyclone strength, moreso than just utilizing base radar products alone. In addition, MRMS echo top heights increased situational awareness for rapidly developing thunderstorms likely to produce large hail. Based on personal experience working in a WFO with not-so-ideal radar coverage, the echo top heights product will be extremely useful as it is imperative to utilize multiple radars for proper storm interrogation. This product will be a sort of “one stop shop” for large hail diagnosis in a storm, rather than constantly trying to keep up with all-tilts and mid/upper max reflectivity products from multiple radars. Of particular use will be the identification of potential large hail producers within storm clusters in a low shear, high instability environment common in the high plains mid to late summer.
One final suite of products to mention is the GOES-R products. We looked at convective initiation and growth potential, in addition to GOES-R airmass product. Incorporating these products into the EWP gave the forecasters hands-on involvement with the future of satellite data. Some forecasters had not had much experience with the GOES-R products, compared to folks like myself whom are heavily involved in the Proving Ground. Therefore, the EWP provided them the ability to see what the future of satellite meteorology will entail, which falls in line with the GOES-R Proving Ground objectives.
Not only was the opportunity to test new products and methods a gratifying experience, interacting with other forecasters from various parts of the country, in addition to the EWP facilitators, proved invaluable as well. In our agency, it’s a rare occasion to actually spend time with or work with other meteorologists within NOAA/NWS to share forecast tools and methodologies, and to discuss agency-related topics and the current/future state of the science. There is much to be gained by sharing ideas and tools across WFO boundaries, in addition to developing new relationships within the agency. For me personally, I was able to gauge where myself and my office stood against other WFOs in performance and involvement with emerging technology. I learned a lot during my week at EWP, and was able to bring back some new ideas and concepts to my office to better serve the people of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska panhandle.
Thank you for giving me the chance to participate in the 2013 EWP!
Rebecca Mazur
General Forecaster
NWS Cheyenne WY
2013 Week 2 Evaluator