The EWP2013 was a great experience to test experimental products and procedures as well as share ideas with operational and research meteorologists. Thank you for giving me this opportunity!
The derived satellite imagery products were very useful in warning operations and near term forecasting. In one exceptional case, the UAH CI product provided 20-30 minutes of lead time to storm development, 75-90 minutes of lead time for the onset of severe weather, and 120 minutes of lead time for tornado occurrence in Montague county, Texas during a historic tornado outbreak across north Texas on Wednesday, May 15. Also on this date, the UW NearCast Vertical Theta-e Difference maxima east of a dryline depicted the location of initial storm development in north Texas, which was a little unexpected as convection was forecast to develop farther west closer to the dryline. It was shown that storms struggled to develop and intensify in a minima area of UW NearCast Satellite Derived Precipitable Water 700-300 mb across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas on Thursday, May 16. Having consistent UW-CTC depictions of -100C/15 min or less for two or more scans can give 30-90 minutes of lead time for thunderstorm development, even in weakly forced environments. Furthermore, GOES-R CIRA simulated IR images can be valuable for the depiction of short waves and mid/upper level moisture, which can enhance near term situational awareness. These simulated images would be handy to import into GFE/IFPS via a smartTool or procedure for making near term forecast updates.
For issuing warnings, MRMS data can be especially valuable. In particular, I liked using the MRMS derived reflectivity at the -20°C level for the detection of large hail, especially at long ranges from radar sites or where radar coverage was diminished. MESH confirms the presence of large hail and complements reflectivity products to increase forecast confidence when making critical warning decisions.
High resolution model data will only improve and become increasingly important for near term forecasting in the years to come. The 1 km LAPS data are tremendous at depicting storm scale subtleties in weather elements such as CAPE, LI, and surface wind. In one example, storms intensified as they moved in an area with higher LAPS derived CAPE. Also, the OUNWRF model outputs were beneficial, especially in determining storm mode, timing, and location several hours prior to convection development.
These products are fantastic to have for warning and near term forecasters to improve situational awareness and ultimately make better decisions. I would like to see these products implemented at a national level. Increasing POD and lead time as well as decreasing FAR of storm based warnings will likely result from using these innovative products. Incorporating research and new products into operations will be vital in the next several years to help ensure the NWS provides the best service possible.
Michael Scotten
Senior Forecaster
NWS Norman/Oklahoma City
2013 Week 2 Evaluator