During the week of May 13-17, I was able to participate in the 2013 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Warning Program (EWP). The week is characterized by a significant collaborative effort amongst NWS forecasters, NSSL scientists, and principal investigators from other research institutes, and it aims to evaluate and improve experimental mesoscale and stormscale products. Among those evaluated were LAPS and OUN-WRF hi-res model output, GOES simulated imagery and sounder data, convective initiation probabilities, cloud-top cooling rates, multi-radar multi-sensor (MRMS) rotational and hail tracks, and dual-polarization hail size and tornadic debris algorithms.

Each day, following a pre-operations briefing, the six forecasters were split into three teams of two – generally one on a mesoscale forecast desk and the two others on warning desks for two different CWAs. Indeed, one of the great features of the EWP is the way in which it replicates warning operations at an actual forecast office. As storms begin to develop, forecasters are tasked with issuing real-time (but experimental) warnings by utilizing the experimental products, in addition to more conventional products and real-time spotter reports via NWSChat, etc. Therefore, the NWS forecasters are in an environment in which they can provide very valuable feedback to the principal investigators, who can then further improve the products.

Without question, operations on the Wednesday of my week, when a tornado outbreak occurred across the Fort Worth CWA, provided our best opportunity to evaluate the products thoroughly. We entered the day with expectations of severe weather, but primarily large hail and high winds, not an outbreak of tornadoes. However, as the afternoon progressed, the experimental mesoscale and hi-res model data started to alert us to a higher threat than we originally thought. For example, the OUN-WRF clearly displayed tracks of higher updraft helicity values progressing across North Central Texas during the evening. As storms developed and the event began to unfold, multiple tornadic storms provided a significant challenge for warning operations, especially considering only two of us were FWD warning forecasters. However, the rotational/azimuthal shear and estimated hail size MRMS tools greatly improved the efficiency and ease of our analysis by giving us a method to check the storm trends relatively quickly.

During the “Tales from the Testbed” webinar at the end of the week, I made sure to emphasize how the new tools provide an improved ability to synthesize the enormous amount of data involved with severe weather operations. Therefore, even in a case where the event is more significant than originally anticipated, a forecaster can stay ahead of the situation.  Additionally, the principal investigators were quite receptive to our suggestions for further improvements so I fully expect these tools to be further developed over the coming months and years. I was quite honored to be chosen for this program, and I believe it is a wonderful opportunity for collaboration and betterment of future warning operations.

Joey Picca
Meteorologist Intern
NWS Upton NY (New York City)
2013 Week 2 Evaluator