Daily Summary: 13 June 2012

Today, we started operations in the Albuquerque (NM) and Midland (TX) county warning areas.  Another early-morning mesoscale convective system left an outflow boundary over west Texas.  While the atmosphere recovered in its wake during the afternoon, storms developed in the less-capped/higher-terrain to the north.  Forecasters Tim Tinsley and Jeff Garmon monitored the experimental products in Midland, while Mike Dutter, Randy Skov, Steve Nelson, and Ty Judd split duties in the Albuquerque (ABQ) CWA.  The forecasters evaluated the CI, cloud-top-cooling, OUN WRF, and 3DVAR products.

This time, however, storms in the ABQ CWA struggled to maintain strength as they moved off the mountains.  This prompted a domain switch of the southern ABQ forecasters (Dutter and Skov) to the Sioux Falls (FSD), South Dakota CWA and the northern ABQ forecasters (Nelson and Judd) to the Fort Worth, Texas CWA (storms were ongoing in both CWAs).

Upon arrival, the FSD crew immediately issued severe warnings.  These warnings verified well, as hail up to the size of golfballs and a funnel cloud were observed in the CWA.  The FWD crew also began issuing warnings as soon as they arrived in their CWA.  By that time, two supercell thunderstorms were ongoing in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Area, producing hail up to the size of baseballs and one report of a funnel cloud.  Substantial hail damage occurred over the densely populated suburbs of Irving and Grand Prairie.  The 3DVAR products — as well as the OUN WRF in FWD — were interrogated during the event.

The Midland crew issued several warnings, using the OUN WRF, CI, and 3DVAR products.  No reports were received, owing the sparse population of west Texas.  The MESH in one storm, however, was up to 2.5 inches in diameter.

-G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator

Tags: None

FSD: Brule TOR

Update — just got a report of a funnel cloud at 750pm south of Kimball with this storm. Still shows very strong azimuthal shear and the mesh is up to 1.65. Continue to see large updraft values as high as 17.

Tags: None

Update from Team MAF…Storms Increasing in Coverage SW of Midland

We have warnings out on a few storms to the SW of Midland.  Storms have increased SW of Midland past couple of hours and this is semi-inline with the OUNWRF forecast of increasing tstm coverage over the central and eastern zones through the course of the evening hours. The model has been consistently too robust on the coverage of storms and too east with the timing of storm placement.

Latest model run still shows some strong Surface Max Hourly Wind Speeds near 30 m/s in the first 1 to 2 hours but then indicates a broad weakened wind field around 20 m/s or less in the 3 to 6 hour forecast.  Radar data suggests main threat with these storms would be large hail, and the OUNWRF has Max Hourly Column Hail around 64 kg/m3 just east of where the storms currently are in the next hour…which is verifying fairly close to current radar observations…just a bit too far to the east.   Most WRF parms seems to be indicating a potential for stronger storms through 9 PM then a weaker trend with tstm intensities by 11 PM as the storms move east into the eastern zones.

Tim/JeffG

Tags: None

FSD: MESH might be a little low

Looks like the MESH has been a little low today at least with the Beadle County storm. Been getting golf ball reports although the MESH max has been 1.8 inches. In fact, got a report of golf balls near Broadland at 725pm, but only got a 1.2 inch MESH. Interestingly, the old school Hail Algorithm from the 88D suggested 1.75 at this time.

Tags: None