OUNWRF over NE Colorado

OUNWRF evolves long-lived supercells over Morgan, Washington and Lincoln counties with a rapid eastward progression. This may place highest supercell risk a bit more to the north compared to theta-e difference forecast (mentioned in the blog entry below). Despite LCLs aoa 2.5 km and increasing DCAPE towards C/E Colorado, the WRF keeps max hourly wind speeds on the lower end side. Feeling is that initiation of WRF activity may be too optimistic/early with slow BL moisture recovery still underway.

OUN-WRF updraft helicity (upper left), surface hourly column hail (upper right), surface max hourly wind speed (lower left) and surface max hourly updraft helicity (lower right)