ILM: CTC Lends to Good MESH Lead Time?

In the 1815 UTC vis satellite image (upper right of top 3-panel), cloud-top cooling was on the order of -17C/15min with a developing thunderstorm.  By 1858 UTC, MRMS MESH product reached 1″ hail size (middle image), and just over 2″ hail size by 1906 UTC.  The UW-CTC product lead to 45-50 minute lead time for 1-2″ hail (as estimated by MRMS MESH).  This is one of many instances we’ve noticed the CTC give decent lead time for 1″ or larger hail.

1815 UTC. Rapid convective development as indicated by -17C/15min cloud-top-cooling rates.
1858 UTC. MRMS (multi-radar, multi-sensor) MESH (max estimated hail size) is estimating 1.02" hail, about 45 minutes after rapid CTC.
1906 UTC. MRMS MESH now estimating 2.13" hail, about 50 minutes after initial rapid CTC.