EWP Status for 7 May 2014: 12:30-8:30 pm Shift

We will begin the day in the DevLab with a debrief of Tuesdays operations in Wyoming and Oklahoma before moving to the HWT at 1pm to join the EFP map discussion.

Severe convection looks a bit more likely over the southern and central plains on Wed. Currently the plan is to operate in the Norman and possibly San Angelo CWAs.  The schedule should allow us to examine the pre-CI environment with multiple GOESR products before transitioning to warning operations.  The Norman  (and Lubbock? — depending on the dryline location) CWAs will be given first priority due to the presence of the Lightning Mapping Arrays.  Hail / wind will likely be the primary threat with these storms.

A region farther north east (Iowa / MN / WI) also currently appears to be a possibility for operations, but CI is likely to occur much later in the day and may not be the best fit for our shift.

EWP Status for 23 May 2013: 1-9 pm Shift

Action in the TX Panhandle and W OK on Thursday for our last operations shift of EWP2013.  A mid morning MCS over OK may leave an outflow boundary in the eastern PH. As the uppre level ridge axis moves to the east, a more favorable deep layer shear profile will emerge, with a chance of supercells.  Large hail will be the main threat, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.  Good opportunities for CI produvt and PGLM product evaluation also exist.

Possible CWAs:  Lubbock, Amarillo, Norman

G. Stumpf, Week 3 Coordinator

EWP Status for 22 May 2013: 12-8 pm Shift

EWP Status for 21 May 2013: 2-10 pm Shift

EWP Status for 16 May 2013: 1-9 pm Shift

Well, it looks like the most exciting weather day of operations this week is almost behind us.  Tomorrow appears to be another marginal / conditionally severe day.  Operations will likely shift north to Nebraska as a short wave moves across the region. This upper level support combined with low-level warm air and moisture advection provides the highest probability severe weather across the CONUS.  Ongoing convection in the overnight and morning hours may complicate timing and location of afternoon storms.  For convection that does occur, large hail and wind will be the primary concerns.

Again, timing is a bit difficult to predict due to the likelihood of overnight/moving convection, but considering it is likely to be a marginal day, I see no reason to switch away from our default schedule of 1-9 pm.

Likely CWAs:  North Platte, Hastings, Goodland

-K. Calhoun, Week 2 Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 14 MAY 2013: 1 – 9 PM SHIFT

Interest tomorrow remains primarily in the southern plains / Texas region.  Convection is expected to develop along and east of the dryline which should set up along or just east of the cap rock in west texas.  Depending on how convection evolves overnight, outflow boundaries will also likely help force  convection further east out towards the DFW metroplex.  This domain will continue to provide coverage for the LAPS and OUN-WRF products. Depending on location of the dry line, we may also see convection within the west Texas or Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array regions.

We will also keep an eye on the chance of development over the DC & northern mid-Atlantic region.  The DCLMA should be operational and it would be preferable to give the forecasters a chance to evaluate the NASA-SPoRT lightning trend tool before the week is over.

Possible CWAs tomorrow:  DFW, LUB, SJT, OUN

K. Calhoun, Week 2 Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 14 MAY 2013: 1 – 9 PM SHIFT

Another conditional / marginally severe day is on tap for Tues. We will likely be operating over Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan as a strong frontal system moves across the region.  Warm air advection will be the story over the region tomorrow with surface temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 80s behind the warm front by the mid afternoon. Showers and storms are likely along the warm front, though at the moment, these look unlikely to become severe.  Further west ahead of the cold front, instability seems slightly better, but a strong cap and low moisture will possibly inhibit storm growth.  Models have been a bit mixed in terms of the amount of low-level moisture that will be available.

Possible CWAs of operation tomorrow:  Duluth, Marquette, and Twin Cities (MSP)

K. Calhoun, Week 2 Coordinator 

EWP STATUS FOR 9 MAY 2013: 12 – 8 PM SHIFT

For Thursday, we are focusing on Texas and Oklahoma for severe potential.  An upper-level shortwave trough (associated with yesterday’s severe weather) will slowly progress east.   Associated severe parameters will shift south and east, toward the I-35 corridor.  Moisture quality should be higher than Wednesday’s event, given continued advection.   As a result, moderate to strong instability should develop from central Texas to central Oklahoma.  Additionally, deep-layer shear is forecast to range from 35 – 50 kts, which – given the forecast instability – should be more than sufficient for supercells.  Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, given weak low-level shear.  However, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

In terms of timing, expect that severe thunderstorms will develop rather early, given the weak capping inversion.   The lift associated with the upper-level shortwave trough will be present early in the day, so storms may be ongoing at the beginning of operations.  Moreover, as the shortwave exits through the day, low-level winds will become more veered, reducing wind shear with time.  Thus, an earlier shift seems reasonable, so will go with the 12 – 8 p.m. for operations.

WFOs Likely to See Operations: Norman and Fort Worth

-G. Garfield, Week 1 Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 8 MAY 2013: 2 – 10 PM SHIFT

For Wednesday, we are monitoring the potential for severe storms across the western High Plains.  Model guidance suggests that a weak shortwave trough will begin to impact this area by mid-afternoon.  Storms are forecast to develop by mid-afternoon in southeast Colorado, and expand eastward along the warm front / bent-back region.  Moderate instability and shear will create the potential for supercells, with a transition to a mesocale convective system possible.

CWAs Likely to See Operations: Dodge City, Wichita

-G. Garfield, Week 1 Coordinator