LAPS Observations and Determining Future Storm Development…

Just a quick post about observations of the LAPS theta-e field this afternoon. It was interesting to see the near stationary aspect of the theta-e boundary in assoc/w the dryline to our south across portions of north Texas this afternoon. This suggests that continued development is possible late this afternoon especially across northern Texas, where the gradients have been sustained and have even increased lately.  However, notice that the gradients have decreased generally across much of Oklahoma where convection and related effects (rain cooled air, cloud shield) have helped to stabilize the environment.

Image 1.  LAPS 2115 UTC analysis.  Shaded values are sfc theta-e, while wind vectors are in blue.
Image 1. LAPS 2115 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.
Image 1. LAPS 2115 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.
Image 1. LAPS 2130 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.

 

Image 1. LAPS 2115 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.
Image 1. LAPS 2145 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.
Image 1. LAPS 2115 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.
Image 1. LAPS 2200 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.
Image 1. LAPS 2115 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.
Image 1. LAPS 2215 UTC analysis. Shaded values are sfc theta-e (K), while wind vectors are in blue.

The 15-minute temporal resolution of the product can be very useful for diagnosing locations of continued convection especially in rapidly developing convective situations.

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Polygon Placement

We issued a tornado warning for the Montague County Tx storm. The sfc rotation track was very useful in helping to draw the polygon as the velocity data was very messy with de-aliasing. This made the sfc rotation track a bit messy, but still easier to see the general idea of what was going on with rotation than the SRM data.

Wesely

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Rotational Track Moore

rotation_trackMooreThe rotational track product did a great job really highlighting the Moore tornado start to finish. The white to blue values around 19 s-1 seemed like the point that if you didn’t have a warning out you should have, but you likely would have no lead time if you waited for 19 s-1.. The red values 11 s-1 on the sfc rotational track would have given you some lead time on this tornado and were a little easier to view than the 0.5 and 0.9 base data at this time.  The mid level rotational tracks were more of a mess but the white/blue 19 s-1 in the mid level rotation would have given some lead time. This strong mid level rotation was present near Bridge Creek prior to tornado genesis.

Wesely

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Dangerous Tornado NW of Vera, OK

If you live between Ramona and Vera, OK, you need to be in a place of shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor, or in a basement right now!  This tornado will likely be moving into northern Rogers county and towardd Talala within the next half hour to 45 minutes. Prepare now ahead of this very dangerous storm.

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Another Tornado 4 miles ESE of Bray, OK

Tornado Bray, OK is now headed toward Foster And Antioch in the next hour. Tornado is rain-wrapped and very dangerous. Do not come out to view the tornado. Find shelter now! If in automobiles, try to find a sturdy building with a safe area to take cover in immediately!

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