GLM MFA for Storm re-generation

GLM Minimum Flash Area showed some utility in boosting lead time for storm re-generation. The storm in the center of the first image had started to weaken a bit after moving off of the outflow boundary that initiated it.

The storm continues to show no new updraft development in the sat imagery as well as MFA product.

At 20:29 GLM MFA begins to indicate that there may be a new updraft forming as it interacts with a differential heating boundary/outflow from the leading storm.

Over the next 20 minutes the updraft continues to strengthen as the storm becomes more robust. The MFA led the visible satellite depiction of the new updraft by 2-4 min. This could be useful when trying to decide whether to continue warnings or not.

 

 

 

GOESR proving ground starting June 19

 

Projects include:

GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Imagery, Band Differences, RGB’s, and Baseline Derived Products

Hazardous Weather Testbed, Experimental Warning Program Relevance:

  • GOES-16 ABI imagery and products provide information about the pre-convective environment, convective initiation, and the evolution of mature convection.
  • Evaluation of GOES-16 ABI imagery and products shortly after availability in AWIPS allows for the early development of best practices for use in convective situations.

 Product Overview:

  • GOES-16 ABI single-band imagery and band differences are already available to NWS forecasters in AWIPS-II.
  • RGB imagery and baseline derived products will be available to NWS forecasters in AWIPS-II prior to experiment.
  • Imagery and products idenitified as potentially benifiting forecasters in convective warning situations will be the focus of this evaluation.
  • 30-sec and 1-min imagery will be evaluated when available, in addition to the 5-min CONUS imagery

GOES-16 ABI Products:

  • ABI single-band imagery (16 channels)
  • ABI band difference imagery
    • 2 – 7.3 um (Split Window), 1.6 – 0.64 (Split Snow), 6.2 – 7.3 μm (Split Water Vapor), 9.6 – 10.3 μm (Split Ozone)
  • ABI RGB imagery
    • Simple: Day Land Cloud Convection, Day Cloud Phase, Day Land Cloud
    • Advanced: Day Convection, Air Mass, Differential Water Vapor
  • ABI baseline derived products
    • Derived Motion Winds, Derived Stability Indices, Total Precipitable Water, and others as time allows.

 

 

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Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and derived lightning detection products

Hazardous Weather Testbed, Experimental Warning Program Relevance:

  • Identify developing deep convection and areal coverage by observing optical detections of both cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud lightning.
  • Evaluate trends from GLM in relationship to storm evolution, storm coverage, severe weather, and flooding potential along with relationships to other fields available at HWT.
  • Identify product types, visualization techniques, and tools for future GLM observations.
  • Identify best practices for GLM products and integration into forecaster storm interrogation methodology.

Product Overview:

  • GLM beta release level 2 products (groups, events and flashes) will be available 9 June 2017 and visualized within AWIPS-II with the baseline GLM plug-in.
  • A Lightning Cluster Filter Algorithm (LCFA) identifies the clustering of optical events into groups and groups into flashes.
  • Time period of display will be evaluated as part of the experiment, but nominally will be 1-min density plots of events, groups, and flashes.

GOES-16 GLM Products:

  • Events – single pixel optical detection exceeding the background threshold for detection.
  • Groups – optical events such as individual return strokes or high current discharges (i.e., K-change). May consist of one or more events (pixel) occurring within a single integration time, including all adjacent pixels, and weighted by the optical intensity of the associated Events.
  • Flash Centroids – One or more groups occurring within 330 ms and 16.5 km. The flash is given as a single, centroid point weighted by the optical intensity of the associated Groups.

 

 

Tags: None

Severe Thunderstorm Warning #3 – Oklahoma

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 3 PROBS

WUUS54 KOUN 261956
SVROUN
OKC003-053-262030-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0111.160426T1956Z-160426T2030Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NORMAN OK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
255 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA…
NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 255 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MANCHESTER…OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF ANTHONY…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
WAKITA AND MANCHESTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…IF ONE IS SPOTTED…ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE…SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT…LON 3679 9796 3688 9815 3700 9809 3700 9780
TIME…MOT…LOC 1955Z 207DEG 61KT 3692 9801

$$

BMS

Forecaster: Schuerman

Tags: None

Severe Thunderstorm Warning #2 – Oklahoma

Pulled the trigger on the second severe thunderstorm warning of the day. Radar signatures (60 dBZ to -20C, TBSS) began to indicate hail was possible at roughly the same time that ProbSevere jumped to around 80% and there was a 7-sigma lightning jump. I was ready to pull the trigger when I saw the radar signatures, but the ProbSevere and lightning jump gave me more confidence on the warning.

SVR2

-Toki Wartooth

Tags: None

SVR Harper and Sumner Co

KICT was down for us, but we relayed with OUN on warning (also pulled up the Topeka radar to help).

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
233 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 233 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WAKITA…OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF MEDFORD…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ARGONIA…BLUFF CITY AND FREEPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM…PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER…PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT…LON 3732 9779 3716 9752 3699 9775 3700 9799
TIME…MOT…LOC 1933Z 216DEG 24KT 3693 9795

$$

BAJ

26SVR_Harper

The ProbSevere went from zero to 97% in less than 40 minutes.
Tags: None