based on the above image, its still up in the air as to which area highlighted will develop convection first, and just as importantly, which area will so severe first. The instability gradient to the west is more impressive, but the CI is higher and more consistent to the east. Stay tuned for updates…

jca

The radar is overlayed with the OUNWRF at 1945z. The OUNWRF has been consistently at least 1 hr too quick with convective initiation.

jca

Update at 1942z 3 june

Image below shows the convec initiation has risen to 92% in just around 15 mins. Noticing a STP of 12 in our area. with storms popping to the west…..

d satterfield
WBOC

There are two distinct boundaries showing up in the visible satellite, as highlighted in the bubble. The GOES-R CI tool indicates 40-60% probabilities for convection along the line. Boundary interaction help with convective initiation as the boundaries move northeast. Will continue to monitor these lines.

-KP

This image shows the prob serve “ring” of ~60%. This color is very similar to the colors of 10% or less. I don’t know exactly how to change the colors, but I would suggest a different color curve since seeing this image made me think that the storm had decreased a lot instead of increasing more than 10%.

jca

High risk day for Nebraska Iowa and we are focusing on North Platte area, Getting situation awareness. seeing extreme instability and high theta e diff. over our area. Ongoing storms underway to our north and expect a strong tornado or two along with a developing derecho type wind event into Illinois and perhaps Indiana by 06-08Z on 4 June.

Looking at v laps and discussing areas of highest cape. High cape seems to be advecting into Nebraska from KS where there was and is extreme heating south of the warm front. V laps proving valuable for sit awareness as I noted yday.

Looking at storm over northern NB and prob severe shows 92% for 2 consec scans. OUN WRF and V-laps forecasting a severe cell in SW NB near Colorado border. Nothing yet but theta diff is large in area and watching area closely.

Update 1930Z 3 june

Convective init. parameter is keying on on convection to the west of an area that vlaps indicated would fire and also an area that theta diff is indicating a key area. See extreme west NB and WY in image above. CONVEC INIT is adding valuable info to confirm our thinking about this area. Watching now for an indication of overshooting top… none yet!

d satterfield
WBOC TV

Near cast variables all lining up in the boxed area with cooler dry air overrunning warm moist air (shown on left) and a good theta-e difference gradient and PW gradient (shown in bubble area) that is propagating northeast. The boxed area will be one to monitor over the next few hours.

-KP

Looking at a comparison of simulated and actual satellite images at 19z shows that the model is too aggressive with convection, or at least clouds in south central NE. It did not at all capture the ongoing supercell in far northern NE.

jca

Good overview of the products – even with little sensible weather.

First thought – will try to “enhance” a few color curves to make interrogation easier. I have spent “lots” of hours in the WFO setting enhancing color tables – and I believe these will help.  One easy change is to reduce the “noise” of the CI product – e.g. remove values below 40%.  This allows you to focus only the storms of interest.

Thought #2 is to combine/overlay the observed fields (e.g. ThetaE_NearCast) with relevant forcing.  For instance, in the image below I used the ThetaE difference with GFS40 850mb moisture convergence.  In essence, combine the observed environment with model forcing parameters.

Mike Fowle

In looking at the CI in and around Osage Cty Okla. the question arises about a developing cell that is only showing a low prob of development. It has a small 50 dbz echo now and the CI pretty much missed it. At some point, it might be a good idea to label cells that CI has determined are already initiated and is no longer being tracked in the algorithm.The 50dbz cell in west Osage (see below) is a good example of one that I was initially unsure of. (The latest update tells me that the algorithm is tracking the cell still, but the idea above remains as something that should be considered.

D Satterfield
WBOC Salisbury,Md