Here is an example of precipitable water (PW) from the SPC Mesoanalysis and observed from the GOES-R LAP Algorithm:While there are slight discrepancies between the two data sets (and obvious noise in the GOES-R data), they are actually fairly similar with respect to trends and location of the highest PW values. The gradients of PW match very closely. This tool will be very useful to track increasing precipitable water.

Polarimetric Researcher

4-Panel Image: Upper left is PGLM Total Lightning using PGHG (Houston) Flash Extent Density.  No Lightning data is picked up.  Upper right is PGLM Total Lightning using PGHG (Houston) 6 minute summation.  No Lightning data is picked up.  Lower right is the Lightning Jump Detection Algorithm (200 km).  Minimal returns.  Lower left is the Lightning Jump Detection Algorithm (600 km).  Minimal returns.  However, the large image (right side of screen) shows 5 minute ENTLN lightning data.  It is picking up data along the Grimes/Madison County border.

-Champion

CI Prob shows several areas for possible thunderstorm development in central and west Texas. While CI Prob has yet to verify at the time of this blog post for much of the region, it has done a very good job in eastern MAF CWA.  The CI Prob increased from 1630 in this region when nothing was showing on radar or prob severe. CI Prob led the way.

1630z   

As the storms initiated, CI Prob continued to indicate growth of other cells. This, too, was verified on in the far west portion of SJT CWA. This provides forecasters with more confidence in CI Prob, even initialized under cirrus in this event, as additional storms are forming along this area.

1745z 

UFFSU

Here is an example of ENTLN Lightning Plot compared to -20C reflectivity from MRMS:

There appears to be nice correlation between lightning and reflectivity aloft (which makes physical sense). In this example, the highest concentration of lightning is associated with >40 dBZ at -20C. A ramp up in lightning could be indicative of larger reflectivity aloft, which would suggest an intensifying updraft.

Polarimetric Researcher

This is not normal.

-Champion

Today wins the distance award as we split up across the country to diagnose convective initiation in various environmental regimes. In the morning, forecasters started in Sterling, VA (LWX), Tampa Bay (TBW), and Pocatello, ID (PIH). Our LWX team used a suite of the GOES-R LAP and CI products to diagnose the near-storm environment and convective potential along/ahead of the cold front across the Appalachian mountains today. With minimal convection in the late afternoon hours, they were moved to Denver/Boulder, CO (BOU) to evaluation the pGLM color curves of some very marginal convection . Out PIH team also spent a good part of the day diagnosing CI and evaluating ENTLN tools and trends as a region of instability on the westward side of the upper-level ridge moved into the area. Our TBW team stayed quite busy with sub-severe seabreeze thunderstorms occurring across most of central FL throughout the day. ProbSevere and the suite of GOES-R products were used actively to target and prioritize regions with promising CI potential throughout the day.

-Darrel Kingfield, CIMMS/NSSL Research Associate & Week 2 EWP Coordinator

The GOES-R Convective Initiation seems to have issues at nighttime. This even occurs with the use of infrared satellite data in the algorithm.

Here are a couple images from the transition from day to night:

From these images, it seems the convective initiation algorithm is probably more useful during the day. The coarser resolution of the infrared satellite data could possibly explain this problem.

Polarimetric Researcher

This wasn’t the best day to look at LMA color tables because there weren’t many strong storms. I have used Flash Density in Huntsville  on strong storms so I am familiar with the default colormap. Below is an example of a weak storm with the LMA 1 vs LMA Default color table.

So here is LMA 1. One positive about this is because the scale between 0-10 has a lot of colors so those levels stand out quite a bit. This is useful in pulse storms and weaker storms. Above that you can see it is more graduated.

Here is the same cell but with the default. You can see under 10 or so, it just looks white and doesn’t show any pinpoint of the updraft or much variation under 10.

So I think that LMA 1 is good for weak storms but then LMA default for stronger storms!

Lauren13 (and Regina)

As expected, the max value on gridded lightning data will likely need to be location specific and might even need to be adjusted based on time of year or even type of storm to better visualize storm trends. I can see how this would quickly become complex and would require local research that might only be done at offices with someone interested in ltg data. Regardless, as has been discussed ad nauseam, changing the max value needs to be easier for forecasters. Simply adjusting the color map is not a long term fix!

Finally got a cell to exceed 25 flashes/min (only lasted for a minute or two), which triggered a DTA (since there is a lower threshold in the west).

At the same time, ProbSevere was near the highest we had seen all day at ~36% with MESH of 0.83 in.

The OT algorithm also began to indicate a possible OT with the storm at roughly the same time.

Hard to say which of these products was the first to key in on the intensification as they all started showing signs at approximately the same time. However, the lightning time series does show a rapid increase just prior to 2245 (lightning jump?).

Issued a SPS based on the experimental products and base radar data.

Ertel