SRSO shows several things. First the overshooting top in PA was nearly stationary, anchored to the terrain by the southerly inflow impinging on the inflection point in the Appalachians. Dual Pol radar estimates up to 3.5″ rainfall there near Harrisburg, PA and a Flash Flood warning was issued for the area. A couple of the overshooting tops including this one were caught by the algorithm (denoted by the red grids in the visible imagery)  but one to the northeast was not as seen by visible imagery.  Also of note in the SRSO were the north south cloud streets in MD and the Chesapeake Bay breeze front just east of KBWI with cooler temps in the 70s and lack of clouds over the Bay into southeast PA. MrSnow/Wacha

Just taking a quick glance across the SE portion of our CWA…

We noticed a few probabilities for CI early (50-60% max), but once the anvils from the storms to the west moved eastward, the model was not able to make any predictions.

-Shasta & Brick

One thing I noticed as the individual storm cells began to merge is the merging of the NOAA/CIMMS Probability of Severe product. While this does make some sense as the convective mode becomes linear… the problem I see is the sample gives characteristics for the entire line. Some of the sampled values make sense (Env. MUCAPE, Env. EBShear, etc…) but for something like the MESH value, I think it could be misleading. Instead, I would like the Severe Probability product to follow the stronger cells embedded in the line, thus breaking up the numbers some.

-Shasta

Did not have a high lightning count Had a quickly building DVIL ProbSevere was high Storm formed on boundary…moving right of mean flow

had a 2-sigma lightning jump

Combination of above elements led to warning decision.

DVIL seemed to be the best tool to use here, as well as spectrum width showing the cell going up along a boundary.

ProbSevere was fairly high for this cell in our western CWA.

Lightning is diffuse and little VIL.  Would think this product (PS) would work better for cells distant from the radar, but in this case not sure.  No reports.

Cell with little Probsevere, but steady velocity signal coming toward OHX 88D.  Thinking some of these winds could mix down, but earlier cells may have stablilized the low levels some.

At 2026 UTC 8 June 2015 issued warning based reflectivity core aloft 50 dBZ up to the upper 30s Kft.  Afterwards the NOAA/CIMSS Severe prob went up to 92% as seen in the image below.  Wind Damage was reported at 2024 UTC in Washington county, MD. Wacha/MrSnow

18 UTC NUCAPS sounding near IAD, modified for IAD surface data showing 2200 J/kg when compared to 900 J/kg in the observed IAD 18 UTC sounding. The observed sounding also shows an elevated mixed layer and capping near 825 mb which is not seen in the NUCAPS sounding. MrSnow/Wacha

Velocity signal showing some stronger winds coming toward the radar, close to the surface.  Issued SPS for 50 mph winds in the boxed area.