Severe Probability along a line

Posted in General on June 8, 2015 by Darrel Kingfield.

One thing I noticed as the individual storm cells began to merge is the merging of the NOAA/CIMMS Probability of Severe product. While this does make some sense as the convective mode becomes linear… the problem I see is the sample gives characteristics for the entire line. Some of the sampled values make sense (Env. MUCAPE, Env. EBShear, etc…) but for something like the MESH value, I think it could be misleading. Instead, I would like the Severe Probability product to follow the stronger cells embedded in the line, thus breaking up the numbers some.

-Shasta

One thought on “Severe Probability along a line”

John Cintineo says:

June 9, 2015 at 8:22 am

Thanks for the feedback, Shasta. We agree with what you are saying. We can make object-identification/tracking better to isolate cores in squall lines, but at the cost of longer latency. We are currently working on a way to have better storm discrimination at the mature stage without too much increased latency, however. So this should help with more spatially discrete fields like MESH.

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