Since we are relatively limited with the products we can use today as the meso sector doesn’t fully extend down into JAX’s area, I will be mainly using LightningCast and MesoAnywhere today. We are able to use the CONUS sector for GREMLIN, though I’m not too sure how useful it will be today with good radar coverage via KJAX. However, there are some more storms moving in from TAE’s area and with KVAX out for the day, it could prove useful.
There is already some discrepancies with the event so far with LightningCast V2 being slightly more bullish with the threat at the Alligator Wrestling event this afternoon as shown below in Figure 1.
Figure 1: LightningCast V1 (left panel) compared to V2 (right panel).
The LightningCast dashboard also shows this discrepancy (Figure 2) with a notable spike in probabilities from V1 followed by a significant decrease and a pretty gradual increase for V2.
Figure 2: LightningCast dashboard comparing V1 (warmer colored lines) and V2 (green line) over time at the event.
Additionally, MesoAnywhere has proven useful since we do not have a meso sector today. I found that it has been pretty good identifying more dominant storms in decaying clusters with pretty good lead time compared to using 5min imagery. Pretty obvious that this would be useful, but I see it as a pretty great tool as a former Florida WFO meteorologist. A lot can happen in 5 minutes and I see this being quite useful for summertime pulse convection.
As of 4:10PM ET, Lightningcast V2 continues to remain more bullish than V1. Figure 3 shows the contours in AWIPS and Figure 4 shows the dashboard. Both versions appear to be on a steady incline, though V2 is noticeably higher.
Figure 3: AWIPS LightningCast with V1 on the left and V2 on the right. The 30% contour is noticeably further south toward the Gator Wrestling Match and also has higher probabilities off the coast of St. Johns county.
Figure 4: LightningCast dashboard showing the probabilities across each version. As of typing this, both have begun to even out.
However, it does appear that V1 did a better job at picking up on the lightning threat for a storm over in TAE’s area covering Berrien and Lanier counties in GA. In Figure 5 below, both versions had a 90% contour over the developing storm with lightning following not too long after.
Figure 5: LightningCast V1 and V2 indicating the threat of lightning for a storm over Lanier and Berrien counties in GA.
In Figure 6, LightningCast shows the threat decreasing accordingly with time as the storm begins to ingest some cooler air, likely outflow from the southern storms. This product appears to be quite good with initiation and I hope we get more cases like this over the next couple days.
Figure 6: The storm over Berrien/Lanier counties in GA showing less of a signal for lightning over the next 60 minutes as it weakens.
Regarding the Gator Wrestling, chances have decreased to zero over time. Both V1 and V2 remained on the lower end for probabilities and verified well with only one GLM strike within 10mi (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Not a whole lot going on at the Alligator Wrestling Match.
