LightningCast

The LightningCast contours didn’t provide much insight due to high probability (>90%) of lightning pretty much the entire event. However we were able to utilize the dashboard for a DSS event. In Figure 1 below, the first thing I noticed was that the first lightning flash was recognized at approximately 2:57PM CDT where both v1 and v2 showed 90-100% probabilities. Looking back within the past hour at around 2:05 PM (not shown in the image), probabilities of lightning occurring within the next hour were approximately in the 50-60% range. It makes sense that the probabilities would increase with shorter lead times, however if this were being utilized for a DSS event and a partner was briefed at 2:05pm, they might decide to take a risk and hold off on sheltering since the probability is only 55% (therefore giving them a 50/50 chance in their eyes). Whereas around 2:20 PM when the probabilities started increasing to 80+%, there was only about a 30 minute lead time at that point. So the DSS events that require additional lead time due to further sheltering options or larger crowds may not be able to fully shelter by the time the first lightning flash occurs.

All that to say, I really like the utilization of this dashboard, however it would need to be used with additional tools (satellite, radar, etc.) in order to provide the most accurate information.

Figure 1: LightningCast Dashboard

Another item that was pointed out was that in Figure 2 below, you can see that the probabilities in v1 (red line) start to decrease around 4:10pm whereas v2 (green) remains above 95%. This could be due to the fact that maybe there were warming cloud tops, however with the ongoing lightning flashes in the vicinity, v2 would be the more reliable tool in my opinion

Figure 2: LightningCast Dashboard

Octane

The first cell that caught our attention was the cell in southwest Butler County. Figure 3 below shows the cloud top cooling and cloud top divergence (top right and bottom two panels), and you can see that cell shoot up with decent divergence aloft. We didn’t end up warning on it since radar looked pretty subsevere, however it was a good situational awareness tool to keep an eye on where the stronger storms were located.

Figure 3: Octane four panel

Later in the period, we did end up issuing two different warnings. The gif below (Figure 4) honestly doesn’t do it justice since I grabbed it a little too late, but there was a pretty pronounced divergence signature that started in Harper County near the city of Anthony that later pushed east into Sumner county. With the divergence remaining consistent and radar showing a pretty good wind signature, we ended up issuing a warning.

Figure 4: Octane four panel

I messed around with the colortables a little bit in Octane, switching to a stoplight color scale for the divergence and the magenta hue for the cooling. I’m still not fully sure which colorscale I prefer, so I’ll need to continue playing with both. However, comparing the three smoothing techniques for the divergence, I found myself looking at the highest smoothing (bottom right panel) more frequently since the lowest smoothing (top right panel) often looked too noisy. I think for situational awareness and assessing which storms to dive deeper into, the highest smoothing should work well.

-Fropa

Since we are relatively limited with the products we can use today as the meso sector doesn’t fully extend down into JAX’s area, I will be mainly using LightningCast and MesoAnywhere today. We are able to use the CONUS sector for GREMLIN, though I’m not too sure how useful it will be today with good radar coverage via KJAX. However, there are some more storms moving in from TAE’s area and with KVAX out for the day, it could prove useful.

There is already some discrepancies with the event so far with LightningCast V2 being slightly more bullish with the threat at the Alligator Wrestling event this afternoon as shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: LightningCast V1 (left panel) compared to V2 (right panel).

The LightningCast dashboard also shows this discrepancy (Figure 2) with a notable spike in probabilities from V1 followed by a significant decrease and a pretty gradual increase for V2.

Figure 2: LightningCast dashboard comparing V1 (warmer colored lines) and V2 (green line) over time at the event.

Additionally, MesoAnywhere has proven useful since we do not have a meso sector today. I found that it has been pretty good identifying more dominant storms in decaying clusters with pretty good lead time compared to using 5min imagery. Pretty obvious that this would be useful, but I see it as a pretty great tool as a former Florida WFO meteorologist. A lot can happen in 5 minutes and I see this being quite useful for summertime pulse convection.

As of 4:10PM ET, Lightningcast V2 continues to remain more bullish than V1. Figure 3 shows the contours in AWIPS and Figure 4 shows the dashboard. Both versions appear to be on a steady incline, though V2 is noticeably higher.

Figure 3: AWIPS LightningCast with V1 on the left and V2 on the right. The 30% contour is noticeably further south toward the Gator Wrestling Match and also has higher probabilities off the coast of St. Johns county.

Figure 4: LightningCast dashboard showing the probabilities across each version. As of typing this, both have begun to even out.

However, it does appear that V1 did a better job at picking up on the lightning threat for a storm over in TAE’s area covering Berrien and Lanier counties in GA. In Figure 5 below, both versions had a 90% contour over the developing storm with lightning following not too long after.

Figure 5: LightningCast V1 and V2 indicating the threat of lightning for a storm over Lanier and Berrien counties in GA.

In Figure 6, LightningCast shows the threat decreasing accordingly with time as the storm begins to ingest some cooler air, likely outflow from the southern storms. This product appears to be quite good with initiation and I hope we get more cases like this over the next couple days.

Figure 6: The storm over Berrien/Lanier counties in GA showing less of a signal for lightning over the next 60 minutes as it weakens.

Regarding the Gator Wrestling, chances have decreased to zero over time. Both V1 and V2 remained on the lower end for probabilities and verified well with only one GLM strike within 10mi (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Not a whole lot going on at the Alligator Wrestling Match.