EWP Blog

Excellent example of AzShear highlighting an area of rotation (western circle) before legacy velocity data indicated a significant threat. Subsequent velocity scans after the inserted example continued to indicate strengthening. If I was the warning forecaster, knowing the given atmospheric setup and mesoscale conditions, the AzShear would have resulted in me issuing a tornado warning 1 to 3 minutes earlier than I would have if basing the decision purely on the velocity data.

-Oppenheimer

ProbSevere sometimes combines two areas of the storm into one overlay. This hides relevant info for one of the circulations. It’s nice to see Torp specifically highlight both of these regions separately.

-Nimbus

A look at AzShear for the downstream tornado warning shows a signal but doesn’t appear quite as defined as it did previously. Notably, the storm behind it is starting to show a better signature. Torp probabilities remain very high (>90%). -Sidney Crosby

Another good example of where Az Shear would allow me, as a warning forecaster, quickly focus my attention towards part of a line of storms I may not have otherwise focused on.

In the reflectivity image, there is some enhancement in the southern portion of the line. Nothing that appears to be overly concerning at this time. However, taking a look at the AzShear, this data highlights an area of potential concern.  Sure enough, the velocity data shows some enhanced values. Despite the highlight in the AzShear, I would need to take a look at more than just the three shared images before making a warning decision…at least for this particular situation given some of the offsetting of the AzShear vs the higher velocity and reflectivity data placement.

-Oppenheimer

I am concerned for spinup tornadoes along this line given disappearing reflectivities and ocassional nubs. Reflectivity tags also moving up the line increasing confidence. Torp probabilities remain fairly low (generally less than 50%). -Sidney Crosby

Having a visual display such as in this example would be very beneficial to me as a warning forecast. The rapid increase and decrease in Az Shear trend charts would likely help a warning forecaster save time during warning operations. Ex: A notable downward trend could indicate to the forecaster that he/she/they could focus their attention to a different storm, and vice versa if there was a trend upwards.

-Oppenheimer

DivShear showing a notable 4-leaf pattern where tor is ongoing. -Sidney Crosby

Torp has consistently shown very high probabilities (<75%)  over the last 20 minutes. This object is colocated with a significant velocity couplet and TDS. -Sidney Crosby

A strong supercell storm developed northwest of Jackson with SRM data showing a tightening circulation between 00:44 and 00:48 UTC and the AZShear  also picked up this circulation with values moving into the high range on the trend graph. TORP also identified the circulation with a 69% probability at 00:49 UTC. This helped to add to my confidence that a tornado warning was needed and a warning was issued.

Flash

-Oppenheimer