MFR Warning Team Pete/Veronica went for a SVR for pennies based on All-Tilts Z and MR/MS MESH output saying 1.00 inch hail. Parts of 4 counties to the NW of KMAX
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Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)
Live Blog – 2 June 2009 (5:38 pm)
Group splits into 2 groups of 2. Were going to have one group be Medford and the other Eureka, however in the time it is taking to compose this, Eureka looks pretty poor. So both will be Medford. We’ll ride this for as long as we can with such a rare opportunity to see svr in this area.
Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)
Live Blog – 2 June 2009 (5:00 pm)
Setting the floater domain to N. CA/S. OR. Main domain for OUN will still be able to capture the stuff in SJT/LUB. Still good storms in SJT/LUB and several warnings have been issued by EKA in N. CA. Dinner break until 5:30, then will do IOP for EKA and/or SJT/LUB.
Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)
Live Blog – 2 June 2009 (4:15 pm)
LMA discussion: Pete noticed that even though VIL was decreasing on a particular storm near KDOX, LMA showed a steady increase and in general his thought was that the storm was intensifying overall and worthy of a warning. He liked the LMA trend graphs.
Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)
Live Blog – 2 June 2009 (3:40 pm)
All forecasters are checking out PHI/LWX CWA’s LMA data in realtime. Storms in the blue box have had a marginal threat of severe winds. Keeping an eye on Medford’s CWA and the quasi-supecellular storms in the LUB CWA. May make a switch around 430 PM or after dinner.
Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)
Outlook – 2 June 2009
There are numerous possibilities inside the SPC slight risk area.
There are 4 potential targets for a late afternoon/early evening IOP.
- Atlantic Seaboard LWX/PHI CWA: SVR watch issued just before 19 UTC. Main threat appears to be straight line winds given moisture pooling along weak frontal boundary and 30-35 flow around 500 mb. Storms moving pretty fast and contain lightning, thus LMA should be able to show “something”.
- S. Oregon MFR CWA: This would represent the first time HWT had a potential W. US event. SBCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg in and around the Rogue River Valley in S. Oregon. 30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear out of the southeast is available as a large (spatially, but not particularly intense) vorticity maximum approaches from the south-southwest. Timing should be near max diurnal heating for the west coast, meaning around 00 UTC. Storms should move out of the SE and primary threat would be marginally severe hail (1″ criteria) and some marginally severe winds given the potential for good downdrafts.
- LUB CWA: Extreme SBCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg exists across the S. TX panhandle. Wind shear is borderline (30-35 kts 0-6 km). Models break out precip around 00 UTC and move the storms to the east. SPC has a 5% tornado threat here, hatched hail box (30%), and 15% straight line winds. If storms can become surface bases here, would be a good IOP for severe and the best chance for any tornadoes.
- OUN CWA PAR/CASA: Storms will form along and ahead of the cold front this evening and well into the night. Models seem to be overpredicting the amount of CAPE ahead of the front. Wind shear is around 30 kts 0-6 km out of the west. Most likely time is 00-03 UTC across the CASA network as storms fire in NW OKlahoma and propagate with the gustfront/synoptic front to the southeast across the CASA network.
2:00-3:00 PM LMA training
3:00-4:00 PM LMA IOP in the Sterling, VA CWA inside current SVR watch
4:00-??? PM TBD: We’ll need to pick an IOP target early and monitor for any potential changes, especially for PAR/CASA operations.
Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)
Some comments on the MR/MS products – 1 June 2009
Pete was working the MR/MS data set for a hail and wind event along a front in Nebraska.
He issued several warnings after looking at the environment, AWIPS all-tilts, AzShear, MESH. He mentioned that all of the products were basically pointing at large hail — it didn’t matter so much in this case which product you looked at because they all gave the same guidance. He would be very interested in seeing how the MR/MS products perform on marginal events, or widespread events (more than just a couple of storms) that are more difficult warning decision-making challenges.
Pete has also observed in the past that most of the proxies for hail that are used operationally (and this could be extended to MESH as well) tend to underestimate hail size when the storm-relative flow is relativeley weak (15 kts, or no meso) and storms are vertically stacked due to no separation of hydrometeors.
Travis Smith (Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor PI)
Summary – 1 June 2009
Pete worked entire IOP on storms over Northern Kansas/Southern Nebraska. This was mainly a hail event with lots of quarters and a few golfballs in storms which were propagating swwd. Mesh and traditional data sets were consistant. Some of the trend products were useful.
Bill and Veronica worked marginal storms in CASA network. Some hail but not much wind. Followed this with the CASA Archive wind event. This group didn’t have D2D and was somewhat hampered with WDSSII display efforts. Looking forward to live events tomorrow, hopefully for all 3 OK network sensors (CASA, PAR, LMA).
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Liz Quoetone (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 1-5 June 2009)
Live Blog – 1 June 2009 (8:30 pm)
Winding down. CASA group done with wind event. Storms continue nrn Ks to build/develop westward producing hail up to quarters and wind. Some of the best rotation signatures of the night but also sampling higher up.
Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)
Live Blog – 1 June 2009 (8:15 pm)
Storms continue to fire along western end of the line in Nrn Ks (Phillips county). Mesh values some of the best so far tonight. Shave making calls on the storm.
Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)