Morning Area Forecast Discussion 6/7/2011

Satellite imagery reveals upper level energy…centered over southern Montana…with associated vort lobe extending through to northeast Colorado. Upper air analysis also indicates jet max from central Rockies region…then curves northward to the western Dakotas. Subjective surface analysis indicates a warm frontal boundary…from southeast North Dakota to northern Wisconsin.

Surface based instability…south of the warm front…has already 2000 + j/kg….immediately south of warm front. Short term model output suggests that instability will reach extreme levels across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin…and the extreme eastern Dakotas…as the warm front lifts slowly northward this afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate deep layer shear will continue to be strong…as jet energy remains near the area. Forecast low level shear fields appear to be strongest…>200 m2/s2 …from long Canadian border from eastern North Dakota…northern Minnesota…to Lake Superior.

Forecast convective initiation will be affected by a considerable low-mid level cap…per 12z regional soundings.

However…this convective inhibition is expected to weaken…as upper wave rotates through the northern plains this afternoon and evening.

At this time…expect greatest potential for severe convection will be across these areas (in order of greatest potential) :

  1. DLH
  2. GRB/MQT
  3. FGF
  4. northern areas of MPX/ARX

At this time…supercells appeared to be preferred between 21z-03z..across areas 1 and 2…across areas of best distribution of surface based instability and deep layer shear.

DC LMA —

Limited possibility exists for thunderstorms in the D.C. LMA… as an ongoing mcs complex over eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia may continue to track southeast towards the DC LMA target area and/or provide a low level focus for new development. Models indicate better instabilities will be located over the western part of the LMA. Marginal deep level shear will limit the likelihood for supercell development.

sohl/buonanno

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Summary – 4 June 2009

Ended operations for today  for us and V2 crew with storms weakening and moving out of WY. (Note: During debrief below, storm reintensified and produced the biggest hail of the evening Рsuch was the night). Also exhausted the PAR archive list as well as a couple more CASA events.

Some general thoughts for discussion tomorrow on today’s events:

  • Good cone of silence case for MR/MS
  • Beneficial to compare base data with MR/MS output to get a sense of the values
  • MESH did very well with hail size estimates
  • Trends very useful
  • Google map display very useful
  • Lots of new products to check out in addition to looking at base data

Will touch on these and more points tomorrow.

Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)

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Live Blog – 4 June 2009 (7:05 pm)

Both groups have gone SVR for Quarter size hail on storm near Cheyenne. Coincidentally, both teams came up with storm motion of SE at 21mph. Pete/Geoff team looking at rotation attm.

Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)

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Live Blog – 4 June 2009 (6:56 pm)

Musical CWAs. Veronica and Bill have now killed storm in BOU CWA. They are starting up as CYS. Both groups now CYS. Storms in CYS CWA were on the way out but now new storms just going up NW of Cheyenne are looking good. Vortex2 is now heading for that same area.

Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)

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Live Blog – 4 June 2009 (6:45 pm)

Bill and Veronica switch from Pueblo to Boulder. They felt storm overn southern part of county was weakening and was also moving out of the domain. V2 reporting storm north of Burns WY has small wall cloud and brief landspout.

Liz Quoetone and Paul Schlatter (EWP Weekly Coordinators, 1-5 June 2009)

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