Wrapped up operations at 0030 UTC.
Ryan/SteveR started off with hail threats — looks like one “threat area” equals 4 NWS warnings art one point. A lot of the NWS warnings are county-shaped. Had a couple of tornado threat areas with low probabilities that matched a NWS tornado warning.
SteveH/Dave/Jonathan — started drawing big polygons and then got more comfortable with the software and began narrowing down their threat area. They ended up with six threat areas. SteveH thinks the display needs some color changes — threat areas overlay the data. Needs to be a contour instead of a solid block of color. Could have had better continuity. Jonathan believes the workload was too heavy to keep up with radar analysis.
SteveR wonders about data management with PAR and CASA data rates.
SteveH – current NWS warnings at his office are separated by threat type (sectorized).
Jonathan – combining threat types into a single warning (Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm) is easier to manage.
Ryan – liked the display of current hazards separated by type. Had to be more precise with updates to keep the storm in the current threat area polygon.
SteveR – felt more like a grid manager than a meteorologist making scientific decisions.
Ryan – would like storm motion first guess in the polygon.
SteveR – feels as fatigued now as in a real warning situation, even though it is just an experiment. SteveH nods in agreement.
Greg says what if you could just add a couple of features to WarnGen to include the probability and motion uncertainty? SteveR likes the idea.
SteveH would like to be forced to re-issue a warning every 20 minutes.
Ryan / SteveR believe that the limitations in the threat areas are primarily caused by the software and not in the science.
Mike M. would be comfortable with algorithm guidance providing a first guess for tornadoes (based on meso location) and hail. Greg would not automate the tornado threat.
Ryan thinks it might be good to combine the threats into a general “probability of severe weather” as a first step instead of Tornado/Wind/Hail.
The discussion wandered into the realm of forecaster workload across their entire spectrum of duties and wrapped up.
Travis Smith (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 19-23 May)