Making a note of this for the ROC, lookin gat velocity data quality issues: Patrick noted some velocity delaliasing failures on KUEX at a crucial decision-making point about 30 minutes ago. He stated that this happened several times on KFDX data yesterday (last night) as well.
Travis Smith (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Team 1 is facing the problem of having their warnings expire… would be good to either give notification 15 min before this happens (such as a pop up window) or a feature on the screen that could be given in the readout telling the forecaster how much longer the warning lasts. They are rapidly trying to update all their warnings as storms continue to merge, are going to switch to tornado threat only for two storms.
Team 2 is now monitoring one main storm in NE. Multiple cells have merged and they are letting the other threats expire as they move out of the area. For the remaining period they will focus on the tornado and hail threats for the Aurora, NE storm.
Will continue operations until 0030 UTC then begin discussion of the evenings activities.
-K. Kuhlman
Team 2 continues to work the multiple threats in NE and Team 1 in KS as seen by the probabilistic swaths and threat areas shown above.
3 storms may be a bit too much for one person to handle. Team 1 had their tornado probabilities for the first storm disappear for a time period, they may not have waited the necessary 10-15 seconds before issuing the next threat. They currently have a third smaller prob tornado threat for Logan that doesn’t seem to be updating though it has been saved–ahhh, problem is that the auto-update was turned off and it had saved the warning at a previous time in the past. The multiple polygons located at the original warning location on the screen continues to add to confusion, would be best to have these translate in time with the set storm motion.
Team 2 seems to be working better after changing the naming philosophy-named storms in terms of location relative to each other (e.g., lead storm), within own CWA would probably use county or city names. Looping control in the lower right panel would also add to the ease of use within WDSSII.
Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Kevin has taken over warning operations for team 2. They currently have 4 tornado, 1 wind, 5 hail threats they are monitoring… this may be a bit too much. Kevin has chosen to let far western hail threat expire to help with workload and the cell has moved out of the area. Again it is hard to maintain which threat area belongs with which storm, Kevin will be renaming the polygons as he updates them. Strong inflow continues for these storms and new cell development is beginning near the radar.
Eric is now in control of the threats for team 1. They are monitoring 3 storms with 3 threats (hail, wind and tornado) on each. Funnel clouds and nickel to golf ball size hail continue to be reported with a couple of their storms.
Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Each team is now monitoring at least 8 threats each, multiple tornadoes have been reported in both locations (NE and KS) and shown on live chaser cams. (So much is going on I’m having problems keeping up with the activities of both teams at this point.)
Dinner activities are beginning and the forecasters plan on switching jobs for the remainder of the evening.
With the storms tracking over each other, the probwarn swaths have overlapped. Patrick notes that some locations may have a high prob now and then a lower prob again later… gives knowledge that multiple storms will be affecting the area.
Team 2 is monitoring 3 separate tornado areas (two on one storm)–all with reported tornadoes, one currently visible on chaser cam.
Team 1 had a wind warning that was much larger than they had originally intended, updated to change size, about 2 min of larger size than intended.
Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Both teams continue to monitor multiple threats (hail and tornado) on multiple storms in northern KS and central NE. Team 1 has transferred a storm to Team 2 as it moves northward out of KS and into NE. Team 2 is monitoring 5 different threat polygons. They are dealing with multiple splits and mergers as storms are catching up with the supercell furtherest east. One of the hail threats just expired and they are having problems choosing which polygon goes which storm… updating every 15 min might prevent this problem to some degree. They currently have about 3 different hail polygons sitting almost on top each other and it is causing quite a few problems in covering the multiple storms. Have decided to just issue a completely new warning, another suggestion would be to label warning output (current threat areas) with name of polygon on screen; this exercise has become a bit of a nightmare in circle management. Storm chasers are reporting power flashes and damage in Kearney, NE for one of the storms Team 2 is working.
Funnel noted on live chaser cam on KS storm Team 1 is working on. They had just previously bumped up the tornado probabilities over 80% for this storm . The county naming convention seems to be working well for this team, although there is debate on whether the name should be changed as the storms move into new counties. After handing off the northern storm to Team 2, Team 1 is now working 2 storms though they beginning analysis on third storm on Gove Co. There are other storms in the general area, however they are leaving these to ‘ghost forecasters’ to handle. They currently are managing 7 different threat areas on the three storms.
Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
The forecasters have begun warning operations in two different sectors. Team 1 (Eric and Patrick on Higgins) are currently focusing on two storms in N. Kansas, issuing a hail swath on the northern storm and hail and tornado for the storm in Sheridan Co, KS. Team 2 (Kevin and Mark on Moore) are covering 3 storms in the Hastings Nebraska CWA, including an HP supercell near Lexington, NE that seems to be outflow dominant. Travis and Greg are keeping track of storm reports and spotter locations and cameras on the SAD.
Team 1 (above) is updating storm motions for multiple threats on the Sheridan Co storm and have already noted that it would be nice to update all threats at one time. They are also using a different naming convention for the storms, referring to them instead by county names–perhaps due to Patrick’s familiarity with the Goodland’s CWA.
Team 2 (above) have issued a low prob tornado warning on the Lexington, NE storm as the velocity signature has gotten a bit better… storm spotters have just recently reported a brief touchdown with this storm.
Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Prob Warn Ops in High/Moderate Risk Area
Forecasters have completed the archived PW case. They will take a short break, and then begin the PW IOP. One team will track cells across south central Nebraska. The second team will begin operating in north central or west central Kansas, but this team will likely jump up to the Sioux Falls/Omaha Area when storms initiate there later this afternoon.
Patrick Burke (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 27-30 May)
Today the SPC has outlined a High Risk for severe weather in Nebraska/Iowa…with a moderate risk southward into Kansas. Thunderstorms are not anticipated in central Oklahoma, so the choice is obvious for a Prob-Warn IOP this afternoon.
Synopsis: A shortwave trough dug into the base of the standing long wave over the western states last night. This trough will eject over the Plains at a time coincident with peak heating, supporting widespread severe storms this afternoon and evening. A warm front lifted northward…taking up residence from northeast Nebraska through western Iowa and southward. A dryline will overtake the warm front from the west…providing impetus for an enhanced risk of severe weather around and north of Omaha, NE. The southern portion of the dryline will advance into southwest and north central Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, CAPE 2500-4000 J/kg, and 50 to 60 knot mid level flow accompanying the shortwave trough, severe storms are a near certainty. The particular mode and evolution is a greater question.
Per the NAM forecast seen below (courtesy College of Dupage), it is possible that two main areas of thunderstorms will develop, one north of the mid level jet and along the warm front, and another ahead of the dryline in northern KS and southern NE. There could be a minimum of activity along the nose of the jet near I-80 in NE.
One forecaster, Brad Colman, has other obligations, and must leave us today to head back to Seattle. The other forecasters are going to run through an archived Prob-Warn case early this afternoon. The archived case is a high priority so that we can have feedback from as many forecasters as possible after seeing the exact same data.
After a short break, we will then engage two teams with on Probabilistic Warnings, possibly in the areas shown above. One team will consist of myself and Eric, while the second team will consist of Kevin and Mark. With the potential for a long-lived and significant event, we will begin the IOP early, possibly 2030 or 2100 UTC, and run through 0200 UTC. A PDS tornado watch has already been issued for central Nebraska and northern Kansas, and storms are initiating along the dryline northeast of Goodland.
Patrick Burke (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 27-30 May)
Today’s operations were quite successful. After the 1 pm briefing, our teams of two forecasters worked archive cases with PAR and CASA such that everyone has seen both data platforms in the two day period. Emphasis then shifted to the Probabilistic Warning program, beginning with an introductory presentation, then moving to the Hazardous Weather Testbed to practice the knobology of issuing warnings with WDSSII. The forecasters used data from a hail-producing thunderstorm in far southwest Texas to practice.
When operations began at 2200 UTC, operations moved up into New Mexico, within a tornado watch box where moist low level upslope, veering wind profiles, and an impinging broad jet stream supported supercell structures. Team 1 (Brad and Mark) were assigned a hail-producing storm near Los Alamos, where the SHAVE project was able to make verification calls in real time. Team 2 (Kevin/Eric) jumped onto a rightward-moving supercell in a rural area ENE from Albuquerque. The event was particularly well defined for Team 2, who followed this and a second supercell that developed in close proximity…for the entire 3.5 hour IOP. They maintained high tornado and hail probabilities with the lead supercell until it became HP, at which time the tornado probabilities decreased somewhat. The second supercell followed the path of the first, and the team had lower tornado probabilities until a well defined RFD caused probabilities to spike just at the end of operations.
Team 1 issued hail swaths on a series of storms that initiated in the foothills near Los Alamos. SHAVE verified this with marginally severe hail, and one golf ball report. After this area was overturned by a train of cells, the team shifted operations to southeast New Mexico. Much like Team 2, Team 1 was able to handle probabilistic threats for hail on two different storms, with a short-lived tornado probability on the eastern-most storm. The activity was just becoming elevated with a weakening trend when operations ended at 0130 UTC. The groups then gathered around with our two Prob-Warn cognizant scientists, Kristine and Travis, for a post-event discussion. We will take a fresh look at this event during the first part of our briefing on Thursday.
Patrick Burke (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 27-30 May)