EWP Blog – Page 318 – Spring Experiments & Beyond

Live Blog – 17 June 2010 (6:35pm)

Posted in Live Blogs on June 17, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

Wow! Been so busy, forgot to make a live blog post. We have been working the tornado outbreak event as WFOs Minneapolis MN (MPX) and Grand Forks ND (FGF). In the early part of the afternoon, we had two forecasters working MPX and the other two on the 5/24/08 archive case. Greg Stumpf (Ops Coord.) decided to work the FGF himself, and was quite overwhelmed, but managed to issue a number of TORs on the storms there. Isolated storms ahead of the dryline, as well as a line of tornadic storms on the dryline! Here is a current picture of our active experimental warnings (NOTE: These are unofficial warnings!). On the left – multi-radar MESH (Max Exp. Hail Size). On the right – 30 minute rotation tracks.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Outlook – 17 June 2010

Posted in Outlooks on June 17, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

The last operations day for EWP2010 finds us operating in the Northern Plains/Midwest for the first time this spring.

The SPC has issued a MODT Risk for the Minnesota area in response to a strong negatively tilted trough and deep surface circulation moving through the area. Attendant to the system will be a very unstable warm sector, warm front and occlusion with a trailing dryline/cold front. Forecast soundings from the 17 UTC RUC valid for 00 UTC show very deep instability (3000-4000 J/kg). Deep layer shear exceeds 50 kts, especially in the north part of the state. Low-level shear also is very high, exceeding 30-40 kts in places. Hodographs, especially over MPX’s northern half and DLH’s area are very favorable, with a hint of a Dan Miller sickle on some.

For today, we are going to start two forecasters right away on nowcast and warning operations for the Minneapolis MN (MPX) WFO. Tornado Watches are already out for the area.

The two other forecasters who hadn’t yet done the 5/24/08 LMA archive case are doing so this afternoon.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Daily Summary – 16 June 2010

Posted in Daily Summaries on June 16, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

Two parts today.

Part 1 (pre-600pm): DC-LMA domain. Our Sterling WFO (LWX) team issued a number of SVR warnings, mostly for wind. Our State College WFO (CTP) had numerous AWIPS problems (no notifications), and there were no severe storms.

Part 2 (post-600pm): Floater domain over the western half of South Dakota. Two forecasters in the Rapid City domain, and one briefly in the Aberdeen domain. Three severe storms, including one major supercell that produced prolific large tornadoes and was nearly stationary near Faith. All systems worked well today.

Also during Part 2, one forecaster went through the 5/24/08 archive case.

Surveys were given to the two forecasters that issued most of the warnings today.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Live Blog – 16 June 2010 (6:55pm)

Posted in Live Blogs on June 16, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

OK – we just switched out LWX team to Rapid City SD (UDX) since the Virginia convection is petering out. Several nice supercells are ongoing in the Rapid City area.

Meanwhile, our CTP team is now doing the 5/24/08 Oklahoma archive case.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Live Blog – 16 June 2010 (6:05pm)

Posted in Live Blogs on June 16, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

Our notification problems would not go away for two of our four workstations, the two running State College CWA. Since that CWA was remaining quiet, we decided to move those two forecasters over to the Oklahoma LMA archive case for the remainder of the evening.

Our Sterling CWA team has had no workstation issues, and has been issuing on the order of 6-7 SVR warnings today. However, it appears that the few storms are winding down and moving out of their CWA. The SPC never issued a watch for this area, despite the warnings (presumably – haven’t looked at the official warnings yet), and the 5% Tornado Risk in the 2000 UTC DY1 outlook.

For the evening, we may find them another CWA to operate, either State College (storms beginning to pick up to their west), or move to one of the High Plains locations.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Live Blog – 16 June 2010 (5:15pm)

Posted in Live Blogs on June 16, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

Ugh! Notifications on AWIPS break again, and it takes us about 45 minutes to get them working again. The fragile system continues to move along for now.

But in the meantime, we’ve been working two CWAs: Sterling (LWX) and State College (CTP). Only our LWX folks have been issuing warnings, SVRs, mainly for wind severe criteria wind (60 mph). The LMA data has been used as well. CI detections have been outside of both CWAs.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Outlook – 16 June 2010

Posted in Outlooks on June 16, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

A severe weather episode is expected over our Washington DC Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) domain, so we will be operating in that area. An upper level trough and associated surface cold front over the central Appalachians, along with a tongue of very moist unstable air to the lee of the mountains are the primary ingredients for severe weather today. 0-6 km shear will exceed 30 kts over the domain, and increase to above 40 kts over central and northern Pennsylvania. 0-1 km shear will be adequate (20 kts), and CAPE will be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. A lee trough has set up, and the first wave of severe thunderstorms is expected to affect our CWAs (Sterling VA – LWX, and State College PA – CTP) around 20 UTC, and should be through around 23-00 UTC. Unless severe weather is ongoing in two CWAs after dinner, we will break off two of the forecasters to do the 5/24/08 archive case, while the other two will remain issuing warnings and watching the GOES-R products. Otherwise, we will conduct the archive event on Thursday in an afternoon shift with two forecasters, and an evening shift with the other two forecasters.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Daily Summary – 15 June 2010

Posted in Daily Summaries on June 15, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

We conducted another long IOP over the Ohio Valley, alternating between the forecast offices in Paducah KY, Indianapolis IN, Louisville KY, and finally Wilmington OH. The event was characterized by an advancing MCS with a bowed linear structure, and isolated supercells in advance of the line. Our teams issued a number of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a few Tornado Warnings, although there were no official tornadoes reported in the SPC log. Most of the threat was for severe wind (or barely-severe wind), of which we have only a few possible MRMS products that could help. In fact, one of the biggest comments we’ve gotten regarding development of new products is to add some MRMS products that can help with severe convective wind warnings. This might include a mid-altitude radial convergence (MARC) product.

For the GOES-R CI products, there was little help even though most of the area was cirrus free. The GOES-R folks will be looking at this case as a possible failure mode case.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Live Blog – 15 June 2010 (7:40pm)

Posted in Live Blogs on June 15, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

Getting ready to wrap up operations tonight. Currently, IND is winding down with the remnants of the advancing squall line/mcs in the NE part of their domain. LMK transitioned from isolated storms in the eastern CWA to the squall line in their western CWA. The isolated storms were “handed off” to ILN and warnings continue on them. So far, these storms have only produced hail and wind reports, with the most being an 82 mph gust measured. One brief tornado was reported early on the IND storms.

Our forecasters are starting to fill out both the GOES-R and MRMS surveys, and we’ll do a replay of their warnings along with the NWS warnings to finish the shift.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)

Live Blog – 15 June 2010 (6:50pm)

Posted in Live Blogs on June 15, 2010 by Greg Stumpf.

Around 615, we switched the PAH WFO to ILN (Wilmington OH), as the isolated supercells ahead of the line were starting to come into the western edge of their CWA. We have several isolated supercells out ahead that IND has issued several TORs, as well as a rapidly advancing squall line surging behind the supercells.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 14-18 June 2010)