Outlook – 21 April 2008

This is the first day of operations during our shakedown week. Because we don’t have any visiting forecasters this week, and we are still prepping the various systems for next week, we are going to attempt to run all three experiments today. Normally, the gridded probabilistic warning experiment would not run if there were Central Oklahoma storms affecting the PAR and CASA domains.

Looking at the 1630 SPC DY1 outlook, there is one SLGT RISK area, but two different regimes, north versus south. Basically, the southern part of the risk area is highly conditional as there is a very strong cap over Oklahoma. A dryline/cold front triple point has set up near Elk City, and there could be enough convergence to overcome the capping inversion. If storms develop, they have the potential to be high-end hailers for several hours. There is also a small chance for tornadoes, however, the shear isn’t the best. Mesoscale accidents might be the rule to squeeze out a tube or two. The northern part of the SLGT RISK area is more likely to see convective initiation before 02 UTC.

So, for today, we intend to start our Intensive Operations Period (IOP) at 5pm. The gridded warning experiment will focus on the areas E-KS and W-MO, but because this is a shakedown week, our domain may “float”. If storms develop in Oklahoma, we will initiate PAR and CASA operations as well, and possibly move the gridded warning operations to the same domain. If this event were to happen during a non-shakedown week, gridded warning operations would cease as PAR and CASA operations would begin, provided the cap breaks.

From 2-5pm, we continue to test systems and get things ready. If this were a non-shakedown week, this time would be spent training visiting forecasters on the systems and running archive case playback.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 21-25 April 2008)

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And Away We Go?

This is the eve of our first operational “shakedown” day for the EWP 2008 Spring Experiment. Are we ready? Heck no! But we’re pretty close. This is the reason for the shakedown week – to iron out any remaining kinks in the system. It also our buffer week to get some of our remaining tasks completed, like the individual experiment plans, and our ideas on how we are going to conduct our daily map discussions and post-event debriefings. The equipment in the HWT operations area is just about ready to go, and most of the mess is finally cleaned up. This is the very first year we are attempting something on this scale, so we feel it will be a work-in-progress, with hopefully much of the work completed by the end of this week.

So, what does the weather look like for the week? A nice progressive trough will move across the nation’s mid-section. Gulf moisture is also starting to make an impressive return Sunday night, and should be nicely in place for several events this week. Monday may see the potential for storms in OK/KS/MO, with a potential sleeper event for Central or North-Central Oklahoma. Could it be a PAR/CASA day, or a gridded probabilistic warning day? We’ll know for sure after our first daily meeting/map discussion tomorrow.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Operations Coordinator)

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This Site is Under Construction…

During the final weeks before operations, we are working hard to get all the hardware, software, and manuals ready for the spring experiment.

Here are Paul Griffin and Brian Schmidt finishing the installation of the Situation Awareness Display (SAD) The SAD will consist of 7 large LCD monitors that will provide images from any of the other EWP computer monitors, as well as live television, web page content, etc. These LCD monitors will be mounted above the desks in two areas of the HWT. This picture shows the main part of the SAD, our 5 monitor tower, located on the west side of the HWT operations area.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Operations Coordinator)

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Shakedown!

We begin our first of two shakedown weeks at the EWP on Monday April 14.

The first shakedown week (14-18 April) will be conducted “loosely”, with no set schedule, as we make sure all the technologies and systems are in proper working condition. We’ll also use some of the time to train our weekly coordinators on the various systems.

The second shakedown week (21-25 April) will be conducted in the same manner and using the same schedule as an actual operations week, except with NSSL participants and some of the weekly coordinators only. During the second shakedown week, we will start to post our daily post-mortem blog entries. Watch for them beginning 21 April 2008!

Greg Stumpf (EWP Operations Coordinator)

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Welcome to the EWP Blog

Here is where we will update participants and other interested parties on news and events regarding the 2008 Experimental Warning Program (EWP) spring experiment being hosted at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed. The experiment will run for six weeks from 28 Apr 2008 through 6 June 2008. Operations will occur every Monday through Thursday of each of the six weeks. Weekly coordinators will provide a daily summary on this blog with some pictures and images of important events worked. An end-of-week blog summary will also be provided, and it will contain feedback from the forecaster participants. In addition, other news and events will be posted to this blog as they occur.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Operations Coordinator)

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