EWP Blog

It was noticed that tracking detectors stopped progressing one naming convection and started a second one.

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TORP produced two different objects for the same mesovortex in a line over MD, alternating between the two each scan. This produced two objects that each had their own probability and trend, but only one showed each scan.

-Nimbus

Good news! TORP object started increasing probabilities as I was drawing up a tornado warning. This coincided with strong AzShear.

Bad news! Multiple TORP objects were created with trackable history, which was a bit confusing. -Sidney Crosby

AzShear is showing an increasing signal with this bowing segment. Torp probabilities have hovered in the 20-30% range roughly, which seems to match up with current thinking -Sidney Crosby

New Torp feature w/ track (bottom image) was useful in warning decision making. Seeing that a track existed, as well as a modest increase in Az shear trends, in addition to previous storm reports…I chose to issue a warning.

UPDATE:  AzShear increased quite a bit over the next 10 min after warning was originally issued.

-Oppenheimer

Another kink in the convective line developed around 1350 near Anne Arnold with what looks like a potential RIJ developing and the AzShear and DivShear both picked up on this although not showing exceedingly high values and Torp (not shown) had a 33% probability object identified. This increased my situational awareness of this storm and tracking the next couple of scans, the Torp dropped off and notch went away as the line became more linear again. In this instance the Torp did well in identifying a potential threat but correctly dropped out with time.

Flash

Focusing on the weak mesovort just to the northeast of Anne Arundel. I would have concerns for tornado there, though there was only one brief TORP object before it dropped. -Sidney Crosby

I noticed well behind the convective line there were some really high values of AZshear and DivShear northwest of the radar which appears to be associated with ground clutter and something that forecasters will need to be aware of and confirm with the base products to identify they are erroneous.

Flash

Observed multiple low-probability TORP objects along the warned line. Initially had the filter set at 30%, so I didn’t see  two of them until I lowered it to 20%.

Starting to see multiple mesovorts fire along the line, prompting a severe with the tor possible tag and would issue individual tornado warnings as they’re warranted. DivShear is also lighting up along the line as these mesovorts developed. -Sidney Crosby