EWP Blog

GOES CI products from UAH and CIMMS not showing a sustained area of CI across Ern NM and SW TX. SE Colorado had some nice CI and subsequent deep convection.

If we can overcome CAP, storms in Ern NM/SW TX will have a lot of CAPE to work with with above normal vertical wind shear for this time of year. SPC has issued an MD for possible severe tstorm watch for SE NM/SW TX.  Not talking it up too much however.

19Z OUNWRF showing that AMA and SJT WFOs may have the most action tonight. We’ll see…..

SNELSON/SKOV

OUN WRF indicating storms north of AQQ will remain tame for the most part for the next hour, then as we trend closer to 22Z the model is increasing the number of storms and strengthening them over Northeast New Mexico through 23Z.  The OUN WRF seems to be handling the situation well matching current observations on radar and satellite nicely.  By 22Z, max hourly windspeeds off OUN WRF indicating some storms from San Miguel County northeast to Union County will be capable of producing winds near severe limits (indicating 20 m/s to 35 m/s).  We are outlooking our northeastern zones now for an increased risk for severe storms next 3 hours.  Currently it is mostly quiet with the exception for a couple of stronger storms north over the northern zones (note visible satellite image below).  From the looks of it…main severe storm threat will be through 00Z then the threat shifts east into the Amarillo CWA.

GOES-R Nearcast shows the low level moisture and instability axis from the Low Rolling Plains off the Caprock northwest into the southern Texas Panhandle at 21z. The Nearcast of CAPE is around 1500 J/K in the LUB forecast area but higher in northeast New Mexico.

Waiting for storms to develop. But once storms develop, Nearcast of low level Precipitable waters shows the higher low level moisture axis will remain over the South Plains and Rolling Plains through the evening. With the directional shear from low level easterly to modestly strong mid and upper level westerly flow, potential for convection to grow upscale into MCS later tonight.

Tim/Ty

The OUN WRF is running a little behind with it already showing CI at 1945z.

Here is the LBB radar at the same time:

We believe that the ongoing convection over the central Texas may be hindering CI. We also believe that the location of initiation will be correct, just ~2-3 hours later.

Ty/Tim

Storms firing northeast of ABQ are strengthening.  Cloud top cooling around -29C/15min.  Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Mora and San Miguel Counties in Northeastern New Mexico until 230 PM MDT. 

3DVAR data shows moderately strong updraft with storm moving through Brownwood with the storm moving

along convergence axis seen with 1 km Total Wind streamlines. MESH/VIL have only indicated marginal severe hail.

Two storms decided to merge over southern Concho County, and the MESH rapidly increased from 1 inch at 0034 to over 3.5 inches at 0044! Although the max updraft did not increase in the 3dvar until the volume scan after the MESH went to 3.5 inches, the updraft helicity did start to increase at 0039…corresponding to the same time the 1km wind vectors converged.Went with a new warning with 80 mph winds and 3 inch hail. MRD/TT

Merger:

0034z:

0040z

0045z:

Shifted to BMX CWA from HUN ~1915CDT.  WoF Max updraft and strong cold pool…issued svr 60mph winds and 3/4″ hail for jefferson and se Tuscaloosa counties and nw Shelby/Bibb counties at 1948CDT/0048Z valid thru 0115z.  Garmon/Skov