DTA Polygons

If two or more DTA polygons are displayed for the same cell, only display the highest level DTA. This will eliminate some of the clutter due to numerous DTAs.

Multiple polygonsLynford

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Suggestion for Cell Flash Rates

We have been watching numerous cell along a line in the western CWA. The display would be less cluttered if the flash rates displayed were above a configurable threshold, for example do not display cells with a rate less than 10.

cluttered flash ratesLynford

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Zero Cell Flash??

We have been tracking a multicell line of storms through the western CWA. Cell Flash rates and Cell Polygons were overlayed on radar data as well as DTA Alerts. Algorithm gave a zero flash rate?? zero flash rate May 5Lynford

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Svr T Warning

Issued warning for the sw CWA. Based on high dBZ well past the -20 level. Warning was issued at 2213z. Prob of svr increased to 51-53% from 2208z to 2216z.

SVRwarningMay5ProbSvr May5.Lynford

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Interesting ENI lightning double centroid

In the AMA area today, a double centroid was observed at 2203Z with one of the centroids going above 40 flashes/min, prompting the level 3 DTA, though probably erroneously as the before (2159Z) and after (2208Z) centroids were 20 flashes or less. Also, why did the algorithm produce two centroids of similar size at 2208Z?

2159Z_lightning2203Z_lightning2208Z_lightningBrick Tamland

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NUCAPS compared to 18z AMA sounding

Pass came across with NUCAPS available at 20z. Looked at 19z data from a point close to AMA which launched an 18z sounding. First image is NUCAPS, Second image is the 18z AMA soundings. Differences notices were cooler temperatures above 300mb on the NUCAPS sounding. There was a small but more distinct cap near 800 mb on the AMA sounding. The freezing level and -20 level had dropped on both soundings compared to the 12z AMA sounding.

NUCAPS18zMay5AMA18zMay5Lynford

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Initial thoughts on convection for AMA

GOES-R/CIMSS CAPE values continue to increase across southeastern portions of the Albuquerque, NM, area towards the southwestern portions of the AMA CWA. Values are not markedly high, on the order of 400-500 J/KG, but skies continue to clear in the wake of convection earlier this morning allowing for greater destabilization later this afternoon.

050515_GOES_CIMMS_Cape_CI_18ZThe UAH GOES-R convective initiation probabilities continue to also increase for southeastern portions of the ABQ CWA and southern portions of the AMA CWA. Reflectivities remain weak moving northeast in the southern AMA CWA, but expect coverage to increase as the storms move into the more favorable environment.

1850Z_radar_ProbSevere_IR_CIMSS_CIBrick Tamland

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Pre Storm Environment

Briefing and water vapor loop showed short wave crossing north central New Mexico. Drying on Water vapor loop lines up with the clearing on the leading edge of the short wave. Better indications of CI in far sw CWA. CAPES have increased to near 1100 J/KG just south of the forecast area. Have DTA  set up and awaiting the next pass for NUCAPS availability. CAPES and LI 18z May 5 CAPES and LI 18z May 5

 

Lynford

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