Thoughts at the end of Day 1…

The LightningCast product I think would be VERY useful for DSS. Overall, when seeing it perform in real-time, the increasing LC probabilities seem to eventually correlate well with GLM flash density. I look forward to using the DSS form this week and seeing how that works for specific sites.

The GREMLIN product seems to be a great way to see the overall picture of precipitation (say, for a region). I think it struggles with precipitation intensity a bit (>45 dbZ) both for storm cells and for heavy stratiform precipitation. At the “storm” level, I have seen instances of the model not following the evolution well (either too intense or not enough).

For OCTANE, it was easier to pick out an example of CI and divergence with the IR versus the Visible products. I could use the direction product on its own in operations, but I really like having the speed, direction, and cloud top divergence all together in a 3 panel to identify convection.

PHS did a great job today identifying convective initiation when overlayed on visible satellite imagery. I look forward to seeing how this performs in other areas of the country this week.

Still learning how best to utilize the GLM DQP; but, when looking over Cuba, I was able to better understand how it locates areas where the data might not be the best. I hope to learn more about this product through the week and see more examples of its application.

Forecaster Cumulus