PHS Forecast For Supercell in Northeast Colorado

Have been looking at PHS data and forecasts in northeastern Colorado. In simulated composite reflectivity (bottom right), there is an indication of a supercell (perhaps right-moving) tracking eastward toward the CO/NE/KS triple point. PHS indicates that this supercell will be tracking into an increasingly favorable environment, and by 02Z, it will be entering an area with much larger CAPE and a nearby local maxima in STP.


Using more traditional mesoscale analysis (such as SPC) there are indications that this forecast is sound. For example, the 6hr SPC mesoanalysis forecast (valid 04Z) shows a supercell riding the northern gradient of an STP bullseye. Knowing that it’s often not the bullseye of a parameter to be concerned about, but rather the northern gradient, this has raised my interest as a forecaster.


To me, the PHS data provides additional confidence in the potential for this storm to become quite strong a few hours from now. Based on mesoanalysis, this storm could be capable of producing all hazards, with hodographs (SPC meso) and STP (both SPC meso and PHS) suggesting a tornado threat is absolutely there. I would probably use this information to start adjusting messaging, in sort of that in-between watch-and-warning paradigm.


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