See a significant improvement in the Prob Severe with V3.  Looking at a particular storm in the panhandle of FL shows a significant difference between the two versions.  The image below is the cell to the right of the screen and the new prob severe v3 time series along with a cross section from GRAnlysist.

What can’t be seen is the sample over the prob severe v3 outline which shows both the v2 and v3 output.  In this case, the v2 showed a 65% chance for severe hail but the v3 only showed 7% for severe hail.  Severe wind was 52% and 58% respectively.  Looking at the cross section and knowing the PW values are in the 1.7-1.8 range shows the main threat would be more of a wind/rain rather than hail.  This is a big improvement.  To be honest, the issue with over forecasting hail on the v2 is a big reason why I usually don’t use prob severe.  Seeing this change with V3, I am much more likely to be looking at it as it seems to be more refined and takes the climate, area and conditions into account before producing significant hail or wind values.  While I don’t think it was looking at the cross section to help make its decision, this cross section is a very good example of a wind risk over hail.

-Strato-Dragon