At times, there is some unnatural jumpiness in the Prob Tor Product. See the time series of 0.5 base velocity and Prob Severe/Tor below.

The first image is 2310Z. The storm is not overly impressive, with 5 minute FED max of 3 (not shown). Accordingly, the Prob Hail/Wind/Tor is 4/2/11 % respectively. The base velocity shows some decent winds of 45+ knots at about 3500 ft. above ground.

When moving to 2312Z however, the Prob Hail/Wind/Tor  are 4/12/61 % respectively. That is a huge jump in Tor Prob, but the velocity does not indicate any substantive change in organization, and the 5 minute FED has not changed.

Going ahead to 2316Z, the base velocity looks even less impressive, but the Prob Hail/Wind/Tor  are virtually unchanged at 3/12/61 % respectively.

Finally, at 2318Z, the Prob Hail/Wind/Tor  drop to 3/2/10 % respectively. These kinds of ups and downs despite any other evidence pointing to a change in organization made the products difficult to use in this case.

Thorcaster