Surface low moving into SW KS; progged to move over CWA through the afternoon and evening. Dew points currently in the 65-70F range in most of the CWA with temps of 75-80F. Cu field ongoing in NW CWA; sfc boundary bisecting from SW to NE both at surface and aloft.

Southwest flow at 500mb with weak shortwave troughs embedded in the flow. 12z DDC sounding has a large amount of CAPE above about 675mb (2700 J/kg) but has a large cap below. Convective temp is 95F.

HRRR shows 850mb winds rapidly increase this evening to 30kt by 00z in the eastern CWA; also indicates this is where convection would take place. NAM also shows this.

Based on surface obs and satellite trends, would expect the eastern CWA to indeed have the highest chance of convection.

Jason Williams & CoonieCatEye

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