CIMSS products were helpful in determining which portions of the FA are most favorable for convection. The CIMSS PWAT, CAPE, LI, and SI values are all most favorable in the northeastern quadrant. CAPE is up to 2200 J/kg, LI values up to -7 and PWAT up to 1”. My initial analysis of only the CIMSS products is consistent with the SPC Day 1 Categorical Outlook which shows a slight risk over the eastern part of the FA and only a marginal and general area further south and west. 0-6 km bulk shear is also most favorable in the east/northeast quadrant with values up to 40 knots. This shear is sufficient to promote organized convection including supercells. The main threats today will be wind, hail and even tornadoes.

-Helen Hunt