The above image illustrates the use of 3d-Var as a potential enhancement in warning lead time. In assessing the Maximum updraft intensity in the upper right panel, we noticed a rapid increase in the magnitude of the storm updraft. MESH at this time was generally sub-severe…but an uptick in MESH is expected as analyses show increasing upward motion on the northern edge of the line segment. As an experiment, we opted to issue a severe warning based mostly in this increase in updraft speed. In retrospect, updrafts of similar magnitude have already produced hail to the size of quarters and larger, so we’re crossing our fingers.