Two more storms in extreme northern Saratoga County, NY are being monitored for warnings (update: an SVR was just issued for the northern storm). 3DVAR has shown the same signals as the Herkimer County storm with strong storm-top divergence:
![3DVAR 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 1930 UTC 3DVAR 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 1930 UTC](https://inside.nssl.noaa.gov/ewp/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2012/05/bcc_3dvar_20120516-1930-e1337197676891.png)
![3DVAR 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 1935 UTC 3DVAR 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 1935 UTC](https://inside.nssl.noaa.gov/ewp/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2012/05/bcc_3dvar_20120516-1935-e1337197705569.png)
MESH was peaking just under 1″ with near-50% POSH. (Update: it has increased above 1″ and POSH is above 50% now, prompting the warning.)
The UW CTC was also strongly negative in eastern Hamilton County at 1925 UTC, indicating a CTC of less than -30 C/15 min, so northern Warren County will need to be monitored.
![Visible Satellite, UW CTC, and UAH CI valid 2012-05-16 1925 UTC Visible Satellite, UW CTC, and UAH CI valid 2012-05-16](https://inside.nssl.noaa.gov/ewp/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2012/05/bcc_ci-combo_20120516-e1337198316847-1023x566.png)