Monitoring More ALY-area Storms

Two more storms in extreme northern Saratoga County, NY are being monitored for warnings (update: an SVR was just issued for the northern storm).  3DVAR has shown the same signals as the Herkimer County storm with strong storm-top divergence:

3DVAR 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 1930 UTC
3DVAR 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 1930 UTC
3DVAR 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 1935 UTC
3DVAR 10km Divergence valid 2012-05-16 1935 UTC

MESH was peaking just under 1″ with near-50% POSH.  (Update: it has increased above 1″ and POSH is above 50% now, prompting the warning.)

The UW CTC was also strongly negative in eastern Hamilton County at 1925 UTC, indicating a CTC of less than -30 C/15 min, so northern Warren County will need to be monitored.

Visible Satellite, UW CTC, and UAH CI valid 2012-05-16
Visible Satellite, UW CTC, and UAH CI valid 2012-05-16 1925 UTC