The EWP2009 Thank You Post

After we wrapped up daily operations in the HWT on 12 June 2009, Norman got hit by a weak tornado. While only minor damage occurred, and there were no injuries and deaths, what a way to end our 6 week experiment! This is this year’s EWP Thank You post, expressing our gratitude to the many participants of the Experimental Warning Program’s 2009 spring experiment. This year’s experiment was just as successful as the 2007 and 2008 experiments, and it could not have been carried out without the hard work and long hours of our team of participants.

The biggest expression of thanks goes to our IT Coordinator, Kevin Manross, who put in more hours than anyone else to pull off the experiment. As you will see below, Kevin wore many hats again this year.

Next, we’d like to thank our primary- and co-Weekly Coordinators for keeping operations on track each week: Kiel Ortega, Dale Morris, Jim LaDue, Patrick Burke, Travis Smith, Liz Quoetone, Paul Schlatter, Greg Stumpf, and Kevin Manross.

The cognizant scientists brought their expertise to the experiment to help guide live operations and playback of archive cases for each of the experiments.

For the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) application experiment, they included NSSL/CIMMS principle investigators Travis Smith and Greg Stumpf, with additional help from NSSL scientists Arthur Witt and Kevin Manross.

For the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) experiment, they included NSSL/CIMMS scientist Kristin Kuhlman who was the principle investigator, along with visiting scientists Geoffrey Stano (NASA-Huntsville) and Eric Bruning (Univ. Maryland/NESDIS).

For the Phased Array Radar (PAR) experiment, Dr. Pamela Heinselman captained the ship, along with these folks from NSSL, CIMMS, and OU: Dave Preignitz, Ric Adams, Arthur Witt, Rick Hluchan, Adam Smith, and Jennifer Newman.

For the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) experiment was again led by Brenda Phillips (U. Mass.), Jerry Brotzge (OU), and Ellen Bass (U. VA). In addition, we had help from Don Rude (U. VA), David Westbrook (U. Mass.), Cedar League (Univ. Colorado – Colorado Springs), Rachel Butterworth (OU), Corey Potvin (OU), and Vivek Mahale (OU).

We had NSSL IT help from Jeff Brogden, Robert Toomey, Charles Kerr, Villiappa Lakshmanan, Vicki Farmer, Karen Cooper, Paul Griffin, Brad Sagowitz, Brian Schmidt, and Joe Young.

We were also graciously provided AWIPS help from NWS Warning Decision Training Branch scientists Ben Baranowski and Darrel Kingfield.

There were a number of guest evaluators from the NWC that provided expertise: From WDTB, Les Lemon and Veronica Davis, from SPC/CIMMS (and the GOES-R Proving Ground), Chris Siewart, and from Florida State University, Scott Rudlosky.

Undergraduate students who supported our SHAVE efforts were: James Miller (coordinator), Anthony Bain, Jessica Erlingis, Steve Irwin, Erika Kohler, Tiffany Meyer, Corey Mottice, Nicole Ramsey, and Brandon Smith.

The EWP leadership team of Travis Smith and David Andra, along with the other HWT management committee members (Steve Weiss, Jack Kain, Mike Foster, Joe Schaefer, and Jeff Kimpel), and Dr. Stephan Smith, chief of the MDL Decision Assistance Branch, were instrumental in providing the necessary resources to make the EWP spring experiment happen.

Finally, we express a multitude of thanks to our National Weather Service and international operational meteorologists who traveled to Norman to participate as evaluators in this experiment (and we also thank their local and regional management for providing the personnel). They are:

Steve Cobb (WFO Lubbock, TX)

Suzanne Fortin (WFO Pleasant Hill, MO)

Gino Izzi (WFO Chicago, IL)

Jeff Michalski (WFO Seattle, WA)

Tom Ainsworth (WFO Juneau, AK)

Chris Wielki (Environment Canada, Edmonton, AB)

Rebecca Schneider (Environment Canada, Montreal, QC)

John Billet (WFO Wakefield, VA)

Kevin Brown (WFO Norman, OK)

Steve Hodanish (WFO Pueblo, CO)

James Cummine (Environment Canada, Winnipeg, MB)

Sarah Wong (Environment Canada, Toronto, ON)

Matthew Kramar (WFO Sterling, VA)

Mike Vescio (WFO Pendleton, OR)

Rob Handel (WFO Peachtree City, GA)

Bill Martin (WFO Glasgow, MT)

Pete Wolf (WFO Jacksonville, FL)

Bill Ward (NWS Pacific Region HQ, Honolulu, HI)

Daniel Nietfeld (WFO Omaha, NE)

Gail Hartfield (WFO Raleigh, NC)

Steve Kieghton (WFO Blacksburg, VA)

Dan Miller (WFO Duluth, MN)

Jenni Rauhala (Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki)

Many thanks to everyone, including those we may have inadvertently left off this list. Please let us know if we missed anyone. We can certainly edit this post and include their names later.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Operations Coordinator)

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Week 6 Summary: 8 – 12 June 2009

In a considerably ironic turn of events, we wrapped up the 2009 EWP merely (~10) hours before an EF1 tornado hit Norman, about 2-3 miles from the NWC…

As for the weekly summary, our forecasters for the week were:

Bill Ward (NWS Pacific Region HQ, Honolulu, HI)
Daniel Nietfeld (WFO Omaha, NE)
Gail Hartfield (WFO Raleigh, NC)
Steve Kieghton (WFO Blacksburg, VA)
Dan Miller (WFO Duluth, MN) [Observer]

We spent the early part of the week running realtime MR/MS and LMA IOPs, and the last couple of days running realtime and archive cases for PAR and CASA, as well as an LMA archive case.  Summary comments follow:

PAR

Used vertical slice cross-section.

Other circulations to the NW of the main circulation were somewhat confusing. [20090513 Stanley Draper Tornado]

Didn’t do much looping, and now that we are looking at it during the debrief, it looks good.

Would be nice to have a feature following cross-section.

Used CAPPI to help pick out storms that needed warnings.

Put CAPPI just above altitude of cap/lid, and when echo showed up, gave indication that storm broke the cap.

Could see evoluation of MARC signature and then surface divergence.

CASA

How would they use this in operations? Have the CASA data of multiple radars as a passive display, and use the 88D for the deep interrogation.

May need a separate person to watch the CASA radars, and communicate to the warning forecaster

Would be nice too have real-time dual-Doppler wind analysis, instead of the 10-min old 3DVAR. Real-time could also to retrieval to get omega field.

The sector wedges were not always centered on the correct spot during our real-time event on Wednesday.

Works better with isolated storms, but not lines of storms. It is trying to satisfy many users, and NWS is only one of those. Need data for model assimilation, etc.

Jumping around from radar to radar may cause folks to miss something important.

QLCS case on Wednesday – these are the kinds of cases that can hurt verification numbers – they are such quick spin-ups and are tiny. OAX realizes that the 5-minu updates of 88D are not sufficient. Time flew by and couldn’t believe how much time had gone by, but did not feel fatigued. Feels that once we can adjust to the rapid time evolution, we will appreciate this.

This group really feels that they will adjust to the rapid refresh and data “overload”! Has faith that WDTB will provide good training to deal with this.

LMA

Regarding the 20090210 archive…

Was nice to see spike in VILMA just before circulation tighten up. Tornado followed the peak. “Lightning jump”

Helpful additional tool to aid confidence.

10k GLM proxy was quite an adjustment. Prefer high-res.

Could be useful for investigating tropical tornadoes, sea-breeze convection, flash flood situations with warm rain processes with little CG – is there IC activity?

Very beneficial with winter storm convection, thundersnow, to help with snow rates, etc.

Would like to see these data sets with dual-pol data as well.

MR/MS

Forecasters, though warmed up to products like MESH, still feel an understandable need to to “calibrate” the product for their own uses.

There were concerns about the apparent discrepancy between some of the MR/MS “height of” products as compared to the AWIPS readouts.  More often than not, an additional (temporal) update would bring the two datasets into better agreement.

Overall Experience

Though we didn’t get to discuss the overall experience from the group, we did ge tsome good feedback on te idea of Decision Support Tools…

Kurt [Hondl] asks what kind of decision support tools could be used that has all these data sets available…

Would have to be pretty intelligent and robust, and not too many alarms at once.

But still would feel most comfortable going to the base data.

Will be a screen real-estate issue.

What’s the most effective way to visualize the base data. Plan views, cross-sections, color tables, isosurfaces, etc.

DSS tool should have the capability for users to set up their own “dashboard”.

The DSS tool should be tied to providing procedure suggestions.

Is this the SCAN model?

SCAN failed because the underlying algorithms fail.  Also, too many false alarms, hard to congifure and shut off alarms.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 8-12 June 2009)

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Outlook – 11 June 2009

There are several plays today, from the DCLMA to the Denver area, however we are catchinbg up with archive cases today.  We’re starting off with all the forecastsers going through the 10 Feb 2009 LMA case.  We will then switch over to PAR and CASA archive cases.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 8-12 June 2009)

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Summary – 10 June 2009

Teams are wrapping up their respective archive cases.  Dan N. and Steve worked the 10 February 2009 CASA case and Gail and Bill worked the 30 April 2009 PAR case.

We will wrap up the day with surveys and discussions.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 8-12 June 2009)

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Live Blog – 10 June 2009 (4:27 pm)

We are two hours into our IOP.  There has been an interesting QLCS case for the PAR.

We’ve also witnessed some intersting lightning features in the VILMA.

CASA had some good strong wind cases.

We plan on continuing on for the next hour, then take a dinner break.  After that, we’ll see if there is any significant redevelopment we’ll start another realtime IOP.  Otherwise, we’ll run archive cases this evening.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 8-12 June 2009)

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Outlook – 10 June 2009

We did a very quick debrief of last night’s events.  We then quickly got started with the ongoing convection entering SW OK.

We are trying a first: we have three teams of two running LMA (Steve/Dan M.), CASA (Gail/Bill), and PAR (Daniel N./Chris S.).

Ops started approximately 1930z.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 8-12 June 2009)

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Summary – 9 June 2009

Wrapping up ops for the night.  Steve and Bill switched from DDC to TSA.  Steve experienced considerable trouble with his AWIPS workstation, and it appears to be a problem overlaying the environmental data on the the elevation scan.

Dan and Gail stayed with ICT.

(UpperLeft KICT "All Tilts" REF showing 50 dBZ at 42 Kft) (Lower Left MRMS 50_EchoTop Product indicating 26 Kft)
(UpperLeft KICT

We missed the possible tornado east of DDC.  Comments will follow in tomorrow’s debried.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 8-12 June 2009)

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Live Blog – 9 June 2009 (2:36 pm) – IOP start

Alrighty…

We left the debrief to start LMA training and then right into a LMA IOP over the DC LMA.  We were paid a visit by OS&T chief Don Berchoff

We then did some CASA training until things startewd initiating in DDC, ICT and OUN CWAs.  The southern most storms (OUN CWA) struggled against the cap so we opted against a PAR IOP and stuck with a MRMS IOP for DDC and ICT.

We had problems with the AWIPS server (load issues) but eventually got going.  Unfortunately, it was too late to capture the tornado E of the KDDC radar that V2 was on.

As of 0035z (10 June), we are relocalizing from DDC to TSA as storms enter Osage Co.  OK.

Kevin Manross (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 8-12 June 2009)

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