Today’s details of products and warnings: Midland, TX

I found the PHS products useful for seeing the corridors of enhanced severe risk. They correctly showed that hail (or wind) was the highest risk compared to tornadoes.

ProbSevere was very useful with the trend lines. Again and again correctly identified risks as they occurred.

GLM showed strong ramp ups in activity prior to each severe issuance. No complaints here.

NUCAPS data was less useful, but with the skew-t pop up I was able to correctly see areas of mid level dry air. I did not use optical flow. Prob lightning was useful to see the first cells pop up but did not serve as much purpose after that with no known DSS opportunities.

Some Random Guy

Fort Worth PHS

20:10Z: The PHS is showing a very unstable environment along/south of the outflow boundary, stretching southwest to northeast across the Fort Worth CWA. Temperatures are in the 80s south of the boundary with upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints. North of this boundary, temperatures are in the lower 60s with lower 60s dewpoints.

Over time, close to 00-01Z, the boundary slides south and east toward the southern portion of the CWA, with SBCAPE over 2000 J/kg, STP values upwards of 3-5 (perhaps picking up on the better curved hodographs along the mesoscale boundary), and LI values approaching -8 to -10. The CAPE seems to match up very well with that seen on the SPC meso page. The SPC meso page had a higher STP southwest of our CWA at this time. This product helped me to focus on regions where new convection would likely form, good for situational awareness.