AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
- A closed low will move from the Four Corners area to the north-northeast through the afternoon and evening. A short wave trough rounding the base of the closed low will track from southern NM into the OK/TX panhandles this afternoon. The largest height falls are forecast from the panhandles into western KS, with weaker forcing extending farther east.
- RUC forecasts MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range east of the dryline. Sufficient deep layer shear to support severe thunderstorm development should be in place by early afternoon. Via a combination of surface heating and increasing large scale forcing for lift, the cap is expected to weaken enough to allow for thunderstorm formation.
- Our area of focus was chosen considering not only the potential for severe convective storms, but also the availability of lightning data and OUN WRF data over Oklahoma.
- Afternoon thunderstorm development is conditional, depending to a large extent on the evolution of ongoing thunderstorms over central OK and north TX. Further thunderstorms developing in between these two areas could decrease instability by limiting moisture advection and surface heating.
- Top four choices for CWAs of focus:
- OUN
- ICT
- DDC
- FWD
Billings/Taylor/Vincent
