UAH CI shows new convection developing over eastern Dona Ana county and expect continued development through 1930Z.  EM and other decision makers should continue to monitor this area for possible warnings and statement.

The first image below shows cloud top cooling rates at 1715Z.  Note the values of almost -35 K in the light blue over west central TX.    The second image below of IR satellite imagery at 1745Z, depicts the beginning phases of strong convection in the same region as the cloud top cooling noted 30 min before strong convection initiated.  The CIMSS cloud top cooling product correctly predicted the formation of a  complex of strong storms that later became severe during the late afternoon/early evening hours.

RB/AMS

NWS SJT was monitoring two areas of thunderstorms.  the strongest storms were located immediately west of Crockett Co., moving north and being influenced the westbound outflow boundary from earlier convection.  Max Composite Updrafts were showing 15-17 m/s though inconsistently.  These storms are capable of producing 1-1 1/2 inch hail according to the MESH algorithm.  Though the strongest updrafts and threat of severe hail were located west of Crockett county, we will continue to monitor this complex for the potential warnings in the near future.

The second area of storms were in central Crockett county and does not appear to be a threat.  Brief heavy rain will be the primary impact.

Nunez

Issued a warning on a cell for hail and wind based on radar trends and the fact that this storm was moving into a good environment.  The above image of radar reflectivity shows the storm moving southeast into a good theta-e environment depicted by the yellow axis on the above image.  The theta-e imagery is CIMSS-NRE Layer GOES Vertical Theta-e Diff Low-Mid Img

RB/AMS

OUNWRF depicted area in ne Crockett county where theta e was increasing and weak circulation was present.  We’re tracking a storm over the sw part of Crockett county moving in this same direction and could lead to strengthening.  Hovis/Nunez

Thunderstorm anvil was masking the new development upstream so the CI/CTC products were not registering data.  The Max Updraft Composite definitely proved to be useful with the new development over Mason Co. and anticipated the collapsing updrafts over San Saba Co. where 1″ hail was detected with 10 minutes lead time.  Nunez

Storm development was increasing rapidly across northeast Mason Co.  Max Composite Updraft values ranged between 19-21 m/s-1 during the last 10 minutes.  Warning is likely for this area.  Nunez

Thunderstorm over northwest Mason county ?is showing Updraft Velocities  of 23 meters/sec and maximum vorticity values approaching 17 s-2.  Radar shows outflow boundary is moving southeast and should impact the storm by 2140z.  Expect storm will continue to increase in intensity.   Hovis/Nunez

Location: Latest guidance supports continued development of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across McColloch, San Saba, Llano, San Saba and Mason counties.

Impacts:  primary impact will be large hail and damaging winds.  there is still potential for isolated tornadoes.

Met discussion:  OUNWRF showed evidence of moisture convergence on the h8/h7 wind and theta E H8-7 layer; MRMS Max hail size estimated 1.5″ hail;  UAH CI strength of signal showed 80-100 values over the areas of favorable moisture convergence; CI-CTC projected new development over Llano county.

WFO SJT

This was somewhat unexpected – a very well-formed classic supercell has developed just north of ICT.  Here are various images:

Tornado reported near Colwich KS!!!