Official websites use .gov
A
.gov website belongs to an official government
organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A
lock (
) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to
the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official,
secure websites.
Real-time posts made during testbed nowcast and warning operations.
First echoes on the KABX radar is matching up well with the 18z run of the OUN WRF. Timing and placement are very close to reality.
The KABX radar at the same time:
CI and Cloud top cooling products are showing strong returns on the elevation. We’ll see if they pan out.
Unfortunately, if the OUN WRF is correct, only a few storms will develop and move east this afternoon/evening.
3DVAR captured an semi-interesting evolution of a storm over SW Gaines County in far west TX. Notice the increase in updraft and updraft helicity prior to an increase in MESH hail size. SEly inflow south of the storm was also strong in the 3DVAR 1km wind. The images are from 0040, 0050, and 0100 UTC on 13 June.
WoF Composite updraft increased to 15-17m/s just before cell moved se into MAF CWA
Issued Warning #2 on cell in Eddy County…mostly based on reflectivity incrsg at time of reissue. Skov
3DVAR shows a steady increase in strength with the storm over Yoakum County. The updraft strength has intensified to 21 m/s at 0100z with updraft helicity increasing 111 m/s2 at 0100 and 169 m/s2 at 0105z. 
Reissued warning for storm moving toward Cochran County with large hail indicated.
Latest 3dvar indication continued organization with updraft increasing to 23 m/s and updraft helicity approaching 200 m/s2.
Tim/Ty
Latest 00Z run of the OUNWRF now showing the storm moving east-southeast across NE DeBaca splitting in the next hour…and the radar data is starting to suggest that as well.
This just in…hail to the size of quarters being reported from this storm in DeBaca County.
Garmon/Dutter
Time to update our SVR for the storm moving southeast out of Guadalupe County. Latest OUNWRF showing a more southeastward progression with this storm (not suggesting a split)…so we are issuing d new SVR to the southeast for the next hour. Also, CTC rates are showing a -15.5C/15 min to the east.
Here is the latest cross section from the DeBaca storm…
…and the MESH just jumped to 2.5 inches…
…and last but not least is a pretty good TBS off that storm…
Garmon/Dutter
Forces are conspiring against me. The SVR polygon was originally issued this way.
Over the next 45 minutes, the two storms split and the left-mover from the original eastern storm split again. All the storms eventually moved at 60-90 deg angles away from the original track.
The coup de grace was the “right-mover” from the second split later showed a very strong antimesocyclone from KLBB. It is also moving VERY slowly SW. Will have to upgrade to a TOR and probably a FFW. Ug.
Glad these warnings aren’t going anywhere…..or are they?
SNELSON
Issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Yoakum county. A splitting supercell over Lea county New Mexico moved north-northeast toward Yoakum county. Although the most severe portion of the storm looked to remain west of our CWA border, a new updraft on the east side developed and moved toward/into the southwest corner of the storm.
MESH showed max hail of around quarter size, but opted to go slightly higher based on anticipated updraft strength.
Update:
The storm has begun to surge northeast. LBB radar now shows 60 dbz to almost 40kft. MESH product has shown some increase to ~1.5, but had not responded yet to the strengthening supercell. Added 2″ diameter hail to the warning, as well as gusts aoa 60 mph.
New towers going up western Guadalupe and San Miguel Counties being watched closely for cooling cloud tops around -15C/15min. If growth rate increases slightly, may need additional SVRs for this area shortly. Last minute report just came in of 1 inch hail with warned storm over eastern Guadalupe County southeast of Santa Rosa.
Garmon/Dutter
