First isolated cell builds with a CI of 40-50%.

Initial cell continues to grow with a CI of 80-90%.

Initial cell reaches a CI of >90% with a new cell developing to the southwest showing a CI 80-90%.

Initial cell eventially goes “poof”, with secondary cell continuing to grow and show a CI of >90%.

Second cell continues to grow with CI still >90% on the southwest flank.

Second cell continues to grow. A warning was eventially issued for this storm.

Scott Rudge.

Convection in CO, NE, WY has exhibited persistent (30 min) OTs as of the 22:15 vis sat pic.

These have been over persistent strong…and at times severe…storms.  OTs have not always meant the storms were severe…and have seen SVR and even TOR under cells that have not had OTs detected.

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As seen in the first image, CI is picking up on come cloud cover out ahead of the main convection. Probabilities were 50% and higher in this area at the time. Shortly after, thunderstorms began to develop just to the south of the main line that had already been warned on. These new storms later merged with the northern cell to produce more of a cluster. This example shows how the CI tool has some skill at time that cirrus isn’t inhibiting detection and can also raise awareness on development in a messy area.

This cell in Laramie Co, WY had a storm report of 1.75″ hail, measured, at 3:51 MDT.

2150Z ProbSevere: 54%, MESH 1.05″

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2156Z was 18%, .70″

A pronounced cluster of higher CI values evolves into a cluster of convection.

Time stamp 2007Z.

Time stamp 2045Z.

Scott Rudge.

Nearcast forecast instability still at its highest across parts of CO, WY, and NE over the next few hours.  Some data gaps here, but the surrounding trend in the data around the gaps lead me to believe there’s still a good road for these storms to travel and hold strength, if not intensify in some areas where daytime heating continues…

The storm that developed earlier this afternoon cycled a few times through its development. At times is showed decent rotation, which was warned on by the Denver WFO. The storm continued to show signs of some possible hail and weak rotation as it crossed the border into Wyoming. The lightning density tool did a good job in picking up on the storm, as show above. Lightning density seems to be a neat tool for awareness, not only for lightning being produced, but also what storms may be the strongest.

Just before 20Z, storms have developed and the Throckmorton storm looks to be close to severe threasholds. Confidence is high that a warning will be needed for the storm. Prob severe has reached 99% with estimated hail size around an inch. Growth rate and glaciation are strong.

The storm weakened a bit as it entered the CWA, but then strengthened quickly. Growth rate and glaciation was strong. A warning was issued.

Scott Rudge.

Storm moving into our area out of Weld Co., CO.  Seems to have lost its rotational signature, but is already cycled a couple of times…and at the least has exhibited some signs of strong downdraft wind wrapping around.   Jared issuing SVR for wind at 2115Z

of interest…total lightning has been relatively steady on this storm over the past 15 minutes.  Only some ebbs and flows…nothing notable…

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Upper level analysis has ridge shifting east with trof entering the four corners region. Upper flow is west to southwest across the southern plains with 120 knot jet across central Texas.

NAM/RAP 500/700 Heights/Vorticity not showing any strong upper waves coming through this afternoon and evening.

Satellite and surface data show some mid level cloudiness moving through the southwest portions of the CWA. Dry line resides across far western portions of OK. Moist southerly BL flow continues across central and eastern portions of the area.

Nearcast moisture fields indicate increased PW’s and higher Theta E moving into the area by late afternoon and early evening.

Convection has initiated just south of the forecast area and just east of the dry line.

Scott Rudge.