Cell in the north had a DTA, but DVIL never jumped too high and 50 dbZ heights were not overly high.  ProbSevere, as in the loop above also never jumped too high.  Thus we did not issue a warning here.

NUCAPS first guess was not that representative of the atmosphere when sampling a clear air sounding. After altering, we went from 0 to 3500 J/kg of CAPE. Which we thought was a bit high.

We did the same thing for an area farther north where we are expecting more instability. First NUCAPS sounding before altering did show a little CAPE (a few hundred), and altering took it back to ~3000 J/kg, a few J/kg lower than the southern, more stable environment. -BT

Found a clear area just near the point of the KS/MO/NE line. Looked at the NUCAPS sounding and manipulated the boundary layer points some…did have a dry layer near 925mb..left most of that in…came up with a CAPE slightly higher than was showing on the SPC mesoscale analysis…3209 where the analysis was showing between 2500-3000.

Cell with warning on it now longing looks like it has a strong updraft in loop.  Do have some sign of cells breaking through, even in our cooler northeast

Instability is increasing again this afternoon in the wake of the departing complex of showers and storms from earlier this morning, which is raising the likelihood that we will see convection redevelop along and ahead of an approaching surface cold front. MLCAPE values are expected to climb into the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range this afternoon, highest near the NE/KS border. Given deep layer shear values are in the 30 to 40 kt range with a strong low level jet, expect we will see some scattered storms develop in the mid to late afternoon hours, especially across northern/northeastern portions of northeast KS.  Given the strong mean southwesterly flow, any strong storms that develop ahead of the approaching cold front should quickly move northeastward and out of the area. The best tornado threat should remain just to the north of the area closer to the stalled boundary to the north of the region in southern NE. Expect our main threat will be from damaging wind and large hail, as there appears to be good -10 to -30 degree C CAPE and more associated with a developing line of storms late this afternoon into the evening (which could extend southwest to northeast across the area) as the front shifts eastward across the area.

We’re trying to see some convection across our northern most counties (TOP). Mean flow is quick to the NE so most of this development will quickly exit our area. Lightning data shows a few flashes on the fringe. I have 5 and 1 min data loaded in a 4-panel view. I think I’m leaning towards using the raw data more compared to the grid. However, I do like looking at the 1 and 5 min data together to get an idea of intensification (or not). -BT

A couple of storms developed off of the high terrain south of the palmer divide near Pueblo’s forecast area. One even registered a +16 sigma jump. Although looking at the raw data, the drastic jump was probably because the relative sample size was quite small and any strong jump would be portrayed as impressive. Also of note, the +16 sigma occurred just as the updraft split occurred and the cell divided.

The eastern storm did show high sigma gains and the raw data went along with that. The strong lightning jump with 4 sigma occurred just before there was a strong jump in ProbSevere from 75% to 93%. The storm was already warned on based on base reflectivity data, but, it helped confirm that there was, in fact, a warnable storm.

-Shasta and Mr. Snow

Prob Severe and ENI DTA product are providing a good first look right now as to where the most dangerous/severe TS are located as NMRS clusters have develops over the Southern part of OAX CWA.

Cell took a little break in lightning on the time series, then bumped up again.  Still high values aloft, >50 dbZ up to 33 kft.  ProbSevere still high and higher values in lighting flash density.

Have a quickly developing cell in our southern CWA. 

Decided to issue a severe based on a quickly growing lightning time series (with little change in areal extent) as well as a high ProbSevere.