ProbSevere had a 69% chance, but highest dbZ still in the low 20 kft range.  DVILs from neighboring radars all low, lightning data coming down.

This cell continues to move into an area that had a window of clear skies, and SRS imagery still shows a fairly good updraft, but not overshooting.  Thus we still have not issued a SVR.

In our northeast CWA as well as south of the Johnson county previously warned storm.

Cell in Pawnee county showed some rotation again , but DVILs are coming down as well as lightning data. Highest dbZ’s are in the low 20 kft range, so decided against issuing a downstream SVR.

As an experiment…issuing the Severe Thunderstorm Warning based on several severe probability values of +90%.

We’ll see what happens…

-Shasta

Had an earlier signal on a rotating cell that lasted only one frame in our southeast and did not receive reports from it.  Had another signal in Gage county, also did not last too long.  Area already under a SVR warning.

Here’s an earlier snapshot when rotation was stronger, but not in an area where reflectivity was high, especially given how high up we were in the storm.

Also, we have some local office research using RAP parameters for when we issued TOR warnings.  They looked at warnings that verified and those that didn’t and what the parameters were.  In this case, the 0-1 km shear was low, 10-15 knots, where the storm was, so it likely was just a rotating cell.

While backing up Pleasant Hills, MO, we had a report of a tornado around 2045z near Tarkio. This is far from all local radars, so the weak rotation the radar was picking up was aloft (about 13kft).

Out of curiosity, we wanted to see if there was a lightning jump around the same time, and sure enough there was (from 28-100 flashes/min).

-BT & Wacha

We seem to be sporadically losing the ENI data that generates the Lightning Jump algorithm. A storm quickly developing northeast of the Denver International Airport showed a strong jump in the lightning density from the PGLM. Meanwhile there wasn’t even a footprint for the Lightning Jump algorithm. When more raw data filtered in, the Lightning Jump information re-appeared.

-Shasta and Mr. Snow

Time series showed another jump with this previously warned cell.  DVIL maintained, had a lightning jump, with some areal coverage increase as well.  Tornado signal not as much as before, but including that cell in the area of this SVR.

Cell moving into Page county, fairly distant from radar, had a strong rotation at the base, around 6 kft AGL.  Given tornadic environment and this signal, which had rotation in the tilts higher up as well, issued a TOR.  Had issued a SVR for the cell just to the south.  See the lightning jump in the cell to the north.

Prob Severe was increasing with a signfcnt lightning jump indicated on the ENI data decided to warn on it before it crossed into MO and out of our CWA.