The ProbSevere  jumped up to 96% with MESH over 5″ when ABQ radar went into clear air mode for 2 scans.

-snowstrm

GOES CI is picking up on CI across west central portions of the cwa…but interestingly enough not picking up on the circled likely severe cell and cell to its ne below. Prob severe of 80% and DTA detected at 1930z. (Fig2)Overshooting top detection has not picked up on this cell either. The GOES-R superscan (Fig 1) is very nicely showing the overshooting top on this and cell to the ne.

Pickles

Using ProbSevere and the ENI lightning flash rate time series, I issued a new SVR warning. I like having both data side by side to add confidence when examining the raw radar data. This storm has pulsed up and down over the last hour or two, so the ProbSevere helps keep the SA up when it maxed out at 80% when I issued the warning.

Latest GOES R- LAP algorithm trends indicating increasing instability and moisture across the CWA to the south of a fairly stationary warm front across Oklahoma.

Highest instability/moisture exists across se portions of the CWA…tapering to moderate across nw portions of the region. (Fig 1&2)This matches fairly well with model progs. But this enviromnment is being advecting nw based on s/se flow low-level flow. Model analysis indicates strongest deep layer shear values will be across nw portions of the cwa (around 40kt)…with marginal values across se portions (25 kt). Combined shear/instability fields indicate highest potential for organized severe weather will be across NW half of the cwa this afternoon…with more isolated threat farther se. In general large hail and wind threat are supported by the high instability and adequate to strong shear. Tornado threat exists as well based on modest low-level helicity and shear values.

  Pickles

The LAPs data provided useful information for analyzing the current environment in the Lubbock CWA (and surrounding region) as well as trends in the data. Precipitable Water and CAPE are two great examples.

The PW image shows the approaching dryline from New Mexico with increasing PW out ahead of it. A loop of the data shows increasing values from MAF CWA north into very southern portion of  LUB. A similar trend is seen in the CAPE values with max values of 2500 to 3000 well to the south.   The 12Z KMAF Sounding (below) shows the low level moist airmass. When modified it indicates CAPE Values approaching 3800.

Expect the best chance of severe storms will be the Eastern portion of the LUB CWA as conditions continue to destabilize this afternoon and dry line progresses eastward.

-snowstrm

Lubbock CWA not experiencing severe convection at beginning of shift, but departing cells observed to the north and northeast.  Based on mesoanalysis, will also watch MAF and ABQ CWAs for emerging storms that could be mature in the LUB area.

CI gave a useful signature for developing storms in Pecos Co TX, and Roosevelt Co NM.

For example.  Roosevelt Co storm first acquired a probability of severe (albeit small 7%) at 1906Z.  CI first passed 50% at 1815Z.  By time of writing (1940Z) it had trended down.

At 1950 two areas have CI >60%, Dickens Co and Briscoe Co.

AMA 12Z sounding was not judged to be representative.  Based on modified MAF sounding 3800 SBCAPE can be achieved, also represented by RAP mesoanalysis.

-Holaday

Two separate thunderstorms developed across south west Oklahoma. Using the lightning cell tracking feature, you can see a good lightning jump. However, an artificial decrease in the total flash rate occurred because of the cell tracking algorithm. The first image below shows the time series.

The rapid decrease around 1900z corresponds to the image below when the cell tracking feature tries to merge the two separate storms.

Utlility of Lightning Jump Detection algorithm in providing situational awareness on total lightning increase.

At 2241z…LJDA…detected a 3 sigma jump with the storm of concern. (Fig1)  At that time ENTLN data reported 177 cloud flashes…only 9 of which were CG. (Fig2)  Then at 2250z ENTLN reported 351 flashes…4 CG. (Fig3) The LJDA provided good situational awareness on this doubling of total lightning count and subsequent intensification. which based on 65-70 dbz reflectivity at 25000 ft was valid. (Fig 4) The other interesting note…is that most of the lightning was IC and not CG. CG data would have told you very little about this storms intensification.

Fig1.

fig2.

Fig 3

Fig 4

Reeves County supercell yielded useful lightning jumps on a few occasions.

Approximately 21:20Z jump of 2 sigma preceded severe hail reports.

A 21:45Z jump came ahead of pronounced inflow notch, right turn and tornadic behavior.  At this point fluctuations in the level continued to produce  some jumps that stood out, but the storm was already clearly severe.  Pictured is 22:32Z, along with path.

– Holaday

Convection developed in MAF CWA. Convective initiation probability exceeded 50% approximately 30 minutes before storms developed over Jeff Davis County.

Range from MAF radar is a limiting factor for storm analysis in this part of Texas. Subject had awareness of this due to Radar Quality Index (shown here as overlay on visible satellite).

This underscores the utility of GOES-R based products to the forecaster.

Modest jump in lightning also observed, may be examined in another post.

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