One thing we quickly noticed was that the CAPE values from the LAP algorithm were nowhere near the values represented on the mesoanalysis page. Part of the problem seemed to be due to the obscuring cirrus over 2/3rds of the forecast area. Attached is the latest image and a loop of the CAPE retreating east as the high clouds move in.

-Shasta

Very pronounced TBSS on a cell just north of KMSP.  Storm has produced golf ball size hail at 713 CST.  NOAA/CIMMS Severe Prob near 90%.  Not crazy about the color bar right over the top of the base data color bar.  Maybe it could go just below? MrSnow.

Perfect example across SD how the CI model has a tough time when switching from day (1st image) to night mode (2nd image). The outer edges of the storms are assigned a low percentage (~20%).

An increase in the CIMSS prob severe gave us higher confidence to issue this warning for this storm over you can see a jump in the lightning also near the time the prob severe increased it’s prob.

We spotted a 10 sigma lightning jump with the cell heading into Lyman Co, SD! This is probably the highest value we’ve spotted so far. There were only 2 CG strikes though. Still looks nice on reflectivity.

 -BT

Scattered showers and storms finally formed in Northeastern MN late this afternoon. However, with just marginal instability storms have remained below severe limits despite excellent deep layer shear in the 40-50 kt range. As mentioned in a previous post CI indicated a line/cluster of showers and storms was likely to develop. As storms develop the CIMSS Prob severe model showed most storms having only a small chance of being severe, which has worked out great today (see images below for radar/prob svr at around 2330Z and CI near 22Z).

-Wacha

Cell still rooted along the topography pushed back up again on DVIL.  ProbSevere came up with likely severe numbers, but cell was not overly tall on All Tilts.  Had a 1-sigma lightning jump with this cell as well.

Switched to MPX CWA  and had high confidence to issue based on 95% probability of severe.

Interesting look at the time series for lightning…after I issued the second warning the cell showed a significant decrease in intensity…perhaps this the downtrend in lightning should have told me that the storm cell was already beginning to weaken. The storm was a good ways from the mpx radar.

Curious left mover from a second storm split produced 64 mph winds at 610 pm. Warning was based on 50+ dBZ to 36Kft.   Lightning has waned to near zero, but reflectivity remains 65 to 70 dBZ.  The right moving cells seem to be dying out.  The initial warning was based on a 90% prob severe according to the NOAA/CIMSS model. This was extremely useful since we had little situational awareness since we just started but had enough trust in it and a quick glance at the radar confirmed it was probably on to something.  Helped give us a nearly 20 minute lead time.  MrSnow/itsinthecards

While looking at the CAPE and PWAT trends, we notices the storm development in SD matches almost exactly with the leading edge of the gradient ahead of the approaching cold front.

The exact CAPE values were about twice as much as the LAP analysis, but the overall pattern matched well. The NUCAPS altered sounding (adding low level moisture) brought the CAPE closer to expected values.

-BT