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Steve and Ryan switch off, with Steve now drawing the warnings. He deleted/canceled the warnings on the NErn storms du e to decreasing MESH and getting behind the sfc boundary.
Steve asks – how will cancellations be handled?
Reworking the SWrn storm’s hail threat.
Kevin Manross (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Although TOR threat is not high, Greg questions whether the threat is greater than zero. Steve and Ryan agree that it is non-zero (background) and so are starting a TOR warning.
Kevin Manross (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Holding off on TOR warning. Hail sig in radar seems to be obscuring velocity and hence confidence.
Kevin Manross (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Issuing hail threat on sup. to SW of KRAX. Following up with TOR threat. TBSS grabbed our attention to hail (MESH “confirmed”). Hook/RFD signature is impetus for TOR.
Kevin Manross (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Let’s try this again (lost my last post)…
Sitting with Ryan K. and Steve R. on a storm near KRAX. Initially tracking a hail threat but transitioning to a wind threat.
NOTE: about 30 minutes ago we had a network/data hiccup that killed our MESH. it is coming back.
Steve notes that there seems to be much more discussion about probs, than meterology.
Greg said the suggestion was offered to have the contour advect with the threat area.
Kevin Manross (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
Running PROBWARN exercise with Ryan K. and Steve R. focusing on storm(s) near KRAX. Currently have one hail threat outlined and working on a new wind threat as the storm falls behind the cold side of the boundary.
Note: Network/data hiccup about 25 to 30 minutes ago, which has knocked out our gridded MESH.
Kevin Manross (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)
SHAVE is working North Carolina and Georgia this afternoon, and will link up with the Prob Warning exercise in another hour or two.
Travis Smith (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 19-23 May)
There is already a Severe T-Storm Watch box out for N. Carolina/Virginia at briefing time, and it looks like we’ll let the storms mature and have a Prob Warning Guidance IOP beginning at 4pm CDT. This is a good region for SHAVE verification as well, so we will try to coordinate the two projects in order to maximize verification of the PWG grids.
The forecasters will split up and work on PAR and CASA playback cases until then.
Travis Smith (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 19-23 May)
We examined some storms SW of Brownsville for the PWG training. No IOP this evening — any data collected are just for training purposes. No strong convection anywhere in the CONUS today.
At the end of the training, conversation ensued about the role of automated algorithm guidance in the warning decision-making process, how to calibrate probabilistic information for different threat type, and the value of advecting warning grids.
Travis Smith (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 19-23 May)
Good day for training! The SPC outlook for today is “See Text”, with a 2% tornado probability over the S. Illinios/Kentucky/Tennessee area and 5% hail probability over three different areas (Upper Midwest/Central Plains/Ohio Valley). There is big 500mb trough in the east with generally NW flow over the risk areas.
Today’s plan(afternoon):
In the evening, we will do a Probabilistic Warning Guidance training exercise, in real-time if storms develop, or displaced real-time if not.
Travis Smith (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 19-23 May)
