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In retrospect, if a forecaster relied solely on the Torp product, there could have been good lead time for the tornado in Monrovia. Displayed below is the progression of Torp while overlaid with DivShear. Note, there is a magenta Torp outline in third image.
-Oppenheimer
The TORP object in Orange/Stafford counties that showed rapid increase in probabilities also showed a quick decrease. As it did this, a second TORP object was created in a similar spot. -Sidney Crosby
Just wanted to note that it was impressive to see the DivShear show the cloverleaf product associated with the strong circulation around 1221 UTC in this QLCS event.
Flash
New TORP object showed rapidly increasing probabilities as it exits Orange County, which caught my attention to sparked further investigation. -Sidney Crosby
Example of where AzShear indicated a threat even though V data indicated minimal threat. Reports of wind damage within AzShear highlighted area.
-Oppenheimer
Doing a comparison of Torp to ProbSevere, I found Torp to be superior on the tornado that occurred northwest of LWX as ProbSevere Tor probability never reached about 35% while Torp had values well above 50% for this identified object. It is nice to see a new tool like this that can improve on the older ProbSvr model.
Flash
Both AzShear and DiVshear highlighting tornadic area quite well, and coincides great with Z and V data. Good example of high warning confidence “nudgers”.
-Oppenheimer
This line of thunderstorms split into 3 main line segments by 1150-1200Z. These line breaks are one of the nudgers/confidence builders in the QLCS tornado warning process. You can see convergence along the UDCZ and a few areas of weak rotation beginning to form along the southern flanks of each of those line segments.
As things started to look interesting in the reflectivity/velocity images, increasing values of DivShear and AzShear led to a couple TORP 30-40% objects being created on the southern end of a couple of those line segments (a sign that we need to keep a close eye on the radar for possible tornadogenesis).
And ultimately, TORP tornado probabilities increased to ~95% right around the time wind/tornado damage started to be reported all across the city of Leesburg, Virginia (~1220Z). You can also see somewhat of that clover-type shape/look in the DivShear product ususally indicative of tornadic circulations.
Kilometers
TORP created a second object (95%) on the same circulation from the same radar (LWX). The original object maintained a 75%. This caused confusion, and led to a lack of trend on the new, 95% object.
-Nimbus
Two TORP objects were created for this tornado-warned storm. Interestingly, the higher percentage object was new and did not have a trackable history, but the (slightly) lower percent object showed a rapid increase. -Sidney Crosby
